2014 is record warm year

The past year has been deemed the warmest on record by NOAA, NASA, and Japan's Meteorological Agency.

The question is whether ENSO had anything to do with this. A climate scientist said this: "A global circulation response pattern to Pacific convection with many similarities to El Niño has in fact been present since at least June. Convection to the east of New Guinea is influencing zonal winds in the upper troposphere across the Pacific and Atlantic, looking similar to an El Nino circulation response. So, is it El Niño? Not quite, according to some conventional indices, but a broader physical definition might be needed to capture the different flavors of El Nino. A number of scientists are calling for modernizing the ENSO identification system. So I’m not sure how this event might eventually be identified, but for many practical purposes (i.e. weather forecasting), this event is behaving in many ways like an El Nino."

The most relevent metric for ENSO is to look at the Southern Oscillation Index and see what that is doing at the moment. If it is negative then it is in El Nino territory.



This is definitely negative but is not as deeply negative as the strong El Nino years of 1998 and 1982.

The model I have been proposing for ENSO easily covers the recent negative SOI excursion of 2014, so that much is interesting.


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