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I got the advice to come over to this forum from Reference Frame And I have something to tell! I have cracked the ENSO code. I now know about its underlying drivers. I know this sounds crazy, but that is what I have done!
I’ve used an ANN or Artificial Neural Network program I’ve created, which I used to play around with, with solar cycles, tidal effects and sea current indexes. I discovered the connection with tidal and solar forcing on ENSO a while back, which I have presented to others at a seminar. At that time I used this graph.
I was preparing to write a paper on this and to upgrade the data up to the end of 2014 when, last month I used a new approach. The result I then got was extraordinary. Look at this!
The training period is from 1979 until 2005, the testing period is from 2005 until 2012. The rest is forecast. The data is based on the MEI ENSO index. The only inputs I use are from tidal gravitational anomalies and from Kp, Ap and variations in solar wind parameters. Most so called skeptics, refer to the Svensmark’s effect when it comes to the connection between global temperature variations and the Sun. Critics from the other camp often point that this effect is too weak. I think they are right on that. How much influence from ENSO variations which contribute directly to variations in the global mean temperature anomaly is up to others to figure out, but I think it should be somewhere between 30 and up to 80 % of the effect, making any input from human caused temperature impact much smaller that is assumed by the IPCC.
I can show with empirical evidence that one of the main causes of recent temperature changes, directly can be attributed to electromagnetic solar driven ENSO variations. If one take into account this ENSO effect and quality questions related to the main surface temperature station by NASA, NOAA and from CRU Hadley Centre, then there is not much space left for any AGW influence on recent temperature changes, irrespective if such effect exists or not. The temperature variation on the global temperature which is generated by ENSO is caused by variations in sun’s electromagnetic activity which is then blurred somewhat by the tidal gravitational effect. When for example the Ap index is weak there is a tendency for fewer and weaker El Niños which leads to cooling. The opposite happens when the Ap index is higher.
I realize that what I have, is an atomic bomb set to explode in the face of climate scientists, ENSO researchers and of course ultimately this is going to be the (beginning) of the end of the CAGW hysteria. I would also point out that the mechanisms I found is relative simple and should therefore be easy for others to confirm and to replicate. And I hope, also by you.
Here is my forecast from now up to 2020.
As you can see according to this forecast the current ENSO value should peek with an El Niño at the end of the current NH summer. It is going to drop after that and continue to drop into a deep La Niña at the NH winter of 2016/17. Time will tell if I’m right.
Here is the detail of the test period up to 2012 and forecast up to 2015.
As you can see there are some anomalies at the end of the period which I attribute to the recent period with Modoki El Niño. The MEI index from NOAA is not well defined for that.
I haven’t released the detail of the mechanism by which the Sun and the Moon drives ENSO yet, but I am going to this publicly. But, because of the magnitude of what I have found I need step back and do some brainstorming and to think through how to proceed.
Should I just send a description to important blogs and websites and then maybe because I need to continue to work with this by investigate with my ANN NINO1+2. NINO3+4, QBO; SOI, LOD, trade wind index and so on? Maybe I should use crowdsouring to finance my future work? Should I try to publish in a scientific paper, where? Tips on anyone I can co-operate with? Of course my claim to have solved the driving mechanisms of ENSO may seem rather extreme and it is OK to be skeptical. I mean I would if I were you. So let it be hypothetical. What would you do if you have discovered what the drivers are of ENSO and you have the data and mechanism to back it up?
My name is Per Strandberg and I have an M.Sc degree in Physics and electronics. I became interested in the climate question a while back and because I have experience with ANN and climate data is freely available I started to play around with this data. Never in my wildest dream did I ever think that I would solve the ENSO mystery, when so many others have failed.