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We have been working collaboratively on the project of understanding ENSO, and I am having fun in seeing how far we can go in modeling the behavior. Yet, there is one word that keeps nagging at me and I think that word is the key to a breakthrough -- Inertia
I am convinced that inertia in the sloshing of the ocean's waters is what will enable us to eventually make accurate predictions of the oscillations. The inertia in the Pacific ocean's volume and the inability of that volume to stop on a dime is what allows the behavior to span years. It is actually not as chaotic as what people believe, as the inertial characteristics will tend to reinforce the behavior in more predictable ways than is conventionally believed.
But I think inertia is also important in how these new ideas will get accepted by the climate science consensus. It will take lots of work to convince the scientists to slow down and reconsider their own approaches to understanding of ENSO. Much like the ocean's volume, they will not be able to stop on a dime and suddenly start to apply some of the foundational mechanisms that we are building within the Azimuth Project. It may take years to sway the tide ( so to speak ).
Instead of depressing, I find that kind of inspirational :) It all boils down to Newton :) That which is in motion, stays in motion. It will be business-as-usual until the BAU gradually changes.
And now of course this pops into my head, a song by the Talking Heads
"Same as it ever was Same as it ever was Water dissolving and water removed There is water at the bottom of the ocean Under the water, carry the water"
That's a cyclic and elliptical tune if I ever heard one.