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- Gang Wang, Ying Zhang, Simon J. Shepherd, Clive B. Beggs, Nini Rao, Application of stochastic Petri nets for modelling the transmission of airborne Infection in Indoor Environments, Acta Medica Mediterranea, 2016, 32: 587.

The classical deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model has played an important role in the analysis of epidemic systems with large populations. However, when population numbers become small e.g. in a hospital ward, a stochastic analysis will be vital. The stochastic Petri-Nets using Gillespie algorithm for modeling the transmission of airborne infections in enclosed spaces is present to be incorporated into an SIR epidemic model with a short incubation period to simulate the transmission dynamics of airborne infectious diseases in indoor environments. The stochastic model not only allows the long-term impact of infection control measures and enables the evaluation of environmental factors, but also depicts the probability of an outbreak of an airborne infection. A quantitative performance study was carried out to demonstrate how to limit the probability rate of outbreak of infection.

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