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# Possible effects of global warming

I started a page

Possible effects of global warming

which currently lists just one effect: extreme weather events. The reason is that we'd accumulated some references and I needed some place to put them!

I hope this page becomes a lot bigger and then undergoes fission, leaving a page that links to various specialized topics.

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1.

That's going to be a very long list. - Or did you mean to title it "Actual effects" - as the two articles suggest?

I'm a bit uncoherent today, so I don't touch the page but just toss in here some collected stuff.

Another already actual effect: Expansion of the tropical belt

Researchers at James Cook University concluded the tropics had widened by up to 500 kilometres (310 miles) in the past 25 years after examining 70 peer-reviewed scientific articles.

[...]

Professor Steve Turton said that meant the subtropical arid zone which borders the tropics was being pushed into temperate areas, with potentially devastating consequences.

"Such areas include heavily-populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America," he said.

"All of (them) are predicted to experience severe drying.

"If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications."

A 2007 news story on another such study: Expanding tropics 'a threat to millions'

[...]

Climate change is having a dramatic impact on the tropics by pushing their boundaries towards the poles at an unprecedented rate not foreseen by computer models, which had predicted this sort of poleward movement only by the end of the century.

[...]

"Several lines of evidence show that, during the past few decades, the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes to the global climate system," the scientists say in their study published online in the journal Nature Geoscience.

[...]

They are particularly concerned about the poleward movement of subtropical dry belts that could affect water supplies and agriculture over vast areas of the Mediterranean, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America.

Actual Vegetation die-off: Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought

[...]

Collectively, these observations suggest that the mortality response to the recent drought was greater in magnitude and extent than the mortality response to the 1950s drought. The warmer temperatures associated with the recent drought would have increased the energy load and water stress demands on the trees and may account for the apparently greater resulting mortality.

[...]

The cessation of drought conditions may be insufficient for reestablishment of P. edulis and associated plant species, as documented for landscape response of Pinus ponderosa after the 1950s drought (5). Such rapid shifts in vegetation may represent abrupt, rapid, and persistent shifts in not only ecotones, but also in dominant vegetation cover and associated ecosystem process (5, 7-8).

Here's a cut-out of their fig. 1 illustrating the difference to the 1950 type drought.

More on drought (predictions) with a nice graphic: Drought under global warming: a review. Freely available article in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Glacier National Park vanishing, to go glacier free by 2020 (link has yummy pics)

Comment Source:That's going to be a very long list. - Or did you mean to title it "Actual effects" - as the two articles suggest? I'm a bit uncoherent today, so I don't touch the page but just toss in here some collected stuff. Another already actual effect: **Expansion of the tropical belt** [Tropical zone expanding due to climate change: study](http://www.physorg.com/news166081900.html) (2009) >Researchers at James Cook University concluded the tropics had widened by up to 500 kilometres (310 miles) in the past 25 years after examining 70 peer-reviewed scientific articles. >[...] >Professor Steve Turton said that meant the subtropical arid zone which borders the tropics was being pushed into temperate areas, with potentially devastating consequences. > "Such areas include heavily-populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America," he said. > "All of (them) are predicted to experience severe drying. > "If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications." A 2007 news story on another such study: [Expanding tropics 'a threat to millions'](http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.html) >[...] >Climate change is having a dramatic impact on the tropics by pushing their boundaries towards the poles at an unprecedented rate not foreseen by computer models, which had predicted this sort of poleward movement only by the end of the century. >[...] >"Several lines of evidence show that, during the past few decades, the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes to the global climate system," the scientists say in their study published online in the journal Nature Geoscience. >[...] >They are particularly concerned about the poleward movement of subtropical dry belts that could affect water supplies and agriculture over vast areas of the Mediterranean, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America. Actual **Vegetation die-off**: [Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought](http://www.pnas.org/content/102/42/15144.full?ck=nck) >[...] >Collectively, these observations suggest that the mortality response to the recent drought was greater in magnitude and extent than the mortality response to the 1950s drought. The warmer temperatures associated with the recent drought would have increased the energy load and water stress demands on the trees and may account for the apparently greater resulting mortality. > [...] > The cessation of drought conditions may be insufficient for reestablishment of P. edulis and associated plant species, as documented for landscape response of Pinus ponderosa after the 1950s drought (5). Such rapid shifts in vegetation may represent abrupt, rapid, and persistent shifts in not only ecotones, but also in dominant vegetation cover and associated ecosystem process (5, 7-8). Here's a [cut-out](http://climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/overpeck-small.jpg) of their fig. 1 illustrating the difference to the 1950 type drought. More on drought (predictions) with a [nice graphic](http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/): [Drought under global warming: a review](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/abstract). Freely available article in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change **Glacier National Park vanishing**, [to go glacier free by 2020](http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/03/global-warming-impact-faster-than-predicted-glacier-national-park-decade-early-2020-2030/) (link has yummy pics)
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2.

Martin wrote:

That's going to be a very long list. - Or did you mean to title it "Actual effects" - as the two articles suggest?

Well, I'd been going to call the page "Effects of global warming", but decided it was better to sidestep the argument about whether the effects listed are real or not, so we could feel free to add information about effects that certain, likely, or merely possible.

But, you seem to be eager to have that argument!

I'll add a note saying that this page is for effects that certain, likely, or merely possible.

Will you please take the quotes and links you just provided and move them onto Possible effects of global warming? You don't need to be coherent; someone will come along and polish what you write.

Comment Source:Martin wrote: > That's going to be a very long list. - Or did you mean to title it "Actual effects" - as the two articles suggest? Well, I'd been going to call the page "Effects of global warming", but decided it was better to sidestep the argument about whether the effects listed are real or not, so we could feel free to add information about effects that certain, likely, or merely possible. But, you seem to be eager to have that argument! <img src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/emoticons/tongue2.gif" alt = ""/> I'll add a note saying that this page is for effects that certain, likely, or merely possible. Will you please take the quotes and links you just provided and move them onto [[Possible effects of global warming]]? You don't need to be coherent; someone will come along and polish what you write.
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3.

Yeah, but first I go catch sleep. Lots of work.

Comment Source:Yeah, but first I go catch sleep. Lots of work.
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4.
edited March 2011

Somehow I got distracted by the possible effects on Bordeaux wine... Vineyards are in fact a canary in the GW coalmine, and viticulturists note climate change effects since decades. France has meanwhile allowed artificial irrigation of vineyards, a sacrilege not long ago...

Added the 3 northernmost European vineyards, incl. coordinates.

Adding the other stuff later, possibly soon.

Comment Source:Somehow I got distracted by the possible effects on Bordeaux wine... Vineyards are in fact a canary in the GW coalmine, and viticulturists note climate change effects since decades. France has meanwhile allowed artificial irrigation of vineyards, a sacrilege not long ago... Added the 3 northernmost European vineyards, incl. coordinates. Adding the other stuff later, possibly soon.
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5.

Stuff added. More elaboration on glaciology.

Linked picture does not resize to browser window width, as it would when viewed alone.

Comment Source:Stuff added. More elaboration on glaciology. *Linked picture does not resize* to browser window width, as it would when viewed alone.
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6.
edited March 2011

Linked picture does not resize to browser window width, as it would when viewed alone.

I think that's always true on webpages when you include pictures using html. I typically specify a size.

On the Azimuth Wiki, I link to pictures like this:

<div align = "center"> <img width = "20" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/> </div>

produces something like

except centered (for some reason I'm having trouble making it centered here).

"width" is the width in pixels, which I've made very small in this example, but I usually take something from 450 to 600, or leave it blank if the image is small enough already - forcing a picture to be bigger than its natural size rarely looks good!

<div align = "center"> <img width = "450" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/> </div>

produces something like

Comment Source:> Linked picture does not resize to browser window width, as it would when viewed alone. I think that's always true on webpages when you include pictures using html. I typically specify a size. On the Azimuth Wiki, I link to pictures like this:  <div align = "center"> <img width = "20" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/> </div> produces something like <img width = "20" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/> except centered (for some reason I'm having trouble making it centered _here_). "width" is the width in pixels, which I've made very small in this example, but I usually take something from 450 to 600, or leave it blank if the image is small enough already - forcing a picture to be _bigger_ than its natural size rarely looks good!  <div align = "center"> <img width = "450" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/> </div> produces something like <img width = "450" src = "http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/leaf.jpg" alt = ""/>
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7.
edited March 2011

A page on possible effects of global warming that spends a large percentage of its time discussing vineyards will be amusing to many Americans, who enjoy making fun of 'chardonnay-drinking liberals'.

(Indeed, in the US knowing the name of any specific varietal may brand you as suspiciously effete and elitist: 'chardonnay' is chosen for this phrase simply because it's a variety of white wine that's commonly drunk at parties and receptions - and most people couldn't even pronounce 'sauvignon-blanc drinking liberal'.)

Comment Source:A page on possible effects of global warming that spends a large percentage of its time discussing vineyards will be amusing to many Americans, who enjoy making fun of 'chardonnay-drinking liberals'. (Indeed, in the US knowing the name of any specific varietal may brand you as suspiciously effete and elitist: 'chardonnay' is chosen for this phrase simply because it's a variety of white wine that's commonly drunk at parties and receptions - and most people couldn't even pronounce 'sauvignon-blanc drinking liberal'.)
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8.

I had 2 inspirations to include effects on vineyards. Plus, why not include some delicious and or humorous (yet scientifically sound) stuff. We all need that at times.

1) a recent denialist comment on the blog. This one has a "Global Warming FAQ" page which blathers about medieval vineyards (plus other nonsense). So this medieval vineyard meme still isn't dead. A list of the northern most vineyards (Norway, Sweden, dunno Canada) is a nice club to render such blather ad absurdum.

2) Juxtaposition of the 2 quotes

“With wine, we can taste climate change.” – Gregory V. Jones

“The result is that aromas lose their freshness, and the wines lack the delicate balance of acidity, sugar and tannins that allow them to age gracefully.” – AFP article on possible effects on Bordeaux wines

Comment Source:I had 2 inspirations to include effects on vineyards. Plus, why not include some delicious and or humorous (yet scientifically sound) stuff. We all need that at times. 1) a recent [denialist comment](http://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/guess-who-wrote-this/#comment-4372) on the blog. This one has a "Global Warming FAQ" page which blathers about medieval vineyards (plus other nonsense). So this medieval vineyard meme still isn't dead. A list of the northern most vineyards (Norway, Sweden, dunno Canada) is a nice club to render such blather ad absurdum. 2) Juxtaposition of the 2 quotes > “With wine, we can taste climate change.” – [Gregory V. Jones](http://www.sou.edu/envirostudies/jones.html) > “The result is that aromas lose their freshness, and the wines lack the delicate balance of acidity, sugar and tannins that allow them to age gracefully.” – [AFP article](http://www.france24.com/en/20110208-bordeaux-wines-face-climate-threat-experts?quicktabs_1=0) on possible effects on Bordeaux wines
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9.

Image fixed.

Drought moved atop Vegetation die-off.

2 vineyards on Gotland, Sweden, added.

Comment Source:Image fixed. *Drought* moved atop *Vegetation die-off*. 2 vineyards on Gotland, Sweden, added.
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10.

Last but not least: I don't like there's no space between the sections. How to add space? I managed to draw a line after each section, but looks kind of ugly.

Here's my general problem with the wiki: Is there any complete and useable syntax list? (Useable means: Where you don't need to read lots of blah possibly ending up with nothing.) There are extremely simple questions not answered (how to add space) and I see lots of mysterious syntax in articles that has no explanation I could find anywhere.

Comment Source:1) Added table of contents 2) Reorganized "glacier retreat" 3) Added recent TIME article on climate and viticulture Last but not least: I don't like there's no space between the sections. **How to add space?** I managed to draw a line after each section, but looks kind of ugly. Here's my general problem with the wiki: **Is there any complete and useable syntax list?** (Useable means: Where you don't need to read lots of blah possibly ending up with nothing.) There are extremely simple questions not answered (how to add space) and I see lots of mysterious syntax in articles that has no explanation I could find anywhere.
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11.

Viticulture! I can't believe the way people who want the world to stop burning fossil fuel think it is some sort of minor matter, so that it is worth mentioning all sorts of trivia like the impact on tourism here or increased disease there. If we stopped burning fossil and nuclear fuel tomorrow (as the lunatic fringe wants) then the carrying capacity of the world would be much less than a billion people. At least they'd all be living close to nature: too close for comfort.

IF we find something cheaper than coal for energy (our only chance to stop burning coal) then just the cost of changing infrastructure will be huge and mostly hit the poor. How much are people prepared to pay to save the world? A major Australian mining union has said "not one job". America has no interest in growing food instead of transport fuel despite the visible impact of rising food prices on world stability. Just the minor rise in energy costs, from initial (ill-advised) renewable subsidies and requirements, has annoyed the Australian electorate enough that the latest polls suggest the government will be wiped out in the next election, if they make it that far.

The world needs cheap energy. It can only come from Nuclear. Nuclear design is a nightmare since elements keep changing and having different chemical and physical characteristics. And clearly we need to prove safety, since "just trust us" isn't going to work. The way to prove safety is to make lots of identical small reactors so that we can test them in extreme conditions [on a remote island]. And this needs to be done in a very open way. "OK, here's our simulation of what will happen when we do this. Now let's actually do it, and everyone can watch live on the Internet".

Comment Source:Viticulture! I can't believe the way people who want the world to stop burning fossil fuel think it is some sort of minor matter, so that it is worth mentioning all sorts of trivia like the impact on tourism here or increased disease there. If we stopped burning fossil and nuclear fuel tomorrow (as the lunatic fringe wants) then the carrying capacity of the world would be much less than a billion people. At least they'd all be living close to nature: too close for comfort. IF we find something cheaper than coal for energy (our only chance to stop burning coal) then just the cost of changing infrastructure will be huge and mostly hit the poor. How much are people prepared to pay to save the world? A major Australian mining union has said "not one job". America has no interest in growing food instead of transport fuel despite the visible impact of rising food prices on world stability. Just the minor rise in energy costs, from initial (ill-advised) renewable subsidies and requirements, has annoyed the Australian electorate enough that the latest polls suggest the government will be wiped out in the next election, if they make it that far. The world needs cheap energy. It can only come from Nuclear. Nuclear design is a nightmare since elements keep changing and having different chemical and physical characteristics. And clearly we need to prove safety, since "just trust us" isn't going to work. The way to prove safety is to make lots of identical small reactors so that we can test them in extreme conditions [on a remote island]. And this needs to be done in a very open way. "OK, here's our simulation of what will happen when we do this. Now let's actually do it, and everyone can watch live on the Internet". sorry about the rant.
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12.
edited April 2011

Martin writes:

Here's my general problem with the wiki: Is there any complete and useable syntax list?

For most practical problems this big how-to guide is enough:

How to

I'm no computer genius but this was enough to answer most of my questions. If you have more questions, post a comment here in the category "Questions", and we'll answer it, and we can put the answer onto the wiki.

I don't like there's no space between the sections. How to add space? I managed to draw a line after each section, but looks kind of ugly.

Please don't don't do idiosyncratic stuff like adding extra space or lines between sections. We've got a uniform style here, which we've evolved over months. There are hundreds of pages. If someone wants to make everything more beautiful, they should figure out a way to make it all more beautiful, make sure everyone here agrees that it's a good idea, and then implement that change uniformly, instead of making one page different from the rest.

To be frank, it seems more important to spend time writing good clear explanations of important issues than to worry about how pretty the pages are. But if we get a member whose main interest is graphic design or typesetting, with special expertise in wikis, we'll certainly be able to keep them busy!

Comment Source:Martin writes: > Here's my general problem with the wiki: Is there any complete and useable syntax list? For most practical problems this big how-to guide is enough: [[How to]] I'm no computer genius but this was enough to answer most of my questions. If you have more questions, post a comment here in the category "Questions", and we'll answer it, and we can put the answer onto the wiki. > I don't like there's no space between the sections. How to add space? I managed to draw a line after each section, but looks kind of ugly. Please don't don't do idiosyncratic stuff like adding extra space or lines between sections. We've got a uniform style here, which we've evolved over months. There are hundreds of pages. If someone wants to make everything more beautiful, they should figure out a way to make it _all_ more beautiful, make sure everyone here agrees that it's a good idea, and then implement that change uniformly, instead of making one page different from the rest. To be frank, it seems more important to spend time writing good clear explanations of important issues than to worry about how pretty the pages are. But if we get a member whose main interest is graphic design or typesetting, with special expertise in wikis, we'll certainly be able to keep them busy!
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13.

The space is perhaps something a response to something that I've wondered about. The headings in the wiki don't get autonumbered, which combined with the quite subtle differences in type size from level to level can make it tricky to see the nesting structure. Obviously having actual autonumbered sections gives the temptation to hard-code section numbers in the text which don't change when stuff gets rearranged, but is there any other reason why there's not visible section numbering?

Comment Source:The space is perhaps something a response to something that I've wondered about. The headings in the wiki don't get autonumbered, which combined with the quite subtle differences in type size from level to level can make it tricky to see the nesting structure. Obviously having actual autonumbered sections gives the temptation to hard-code section numbers in the text which don't change when stuff gets rearranged, but is there any other reason why there's not visible section numbering? [Copied to a technical thread]
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14.
edited April 2011

rks said:

Viticulture! I can't believe the way people who want the world to stop burning fossil fuel think it is some sort of minor matter, so that it is worth mentioning all sorts of trivia

Yeah, I know I'm possibly the only one finding this seriously interesting. Here's the rationales:

1) Viticulture is a great non-techy/sciency early indicator of warming. No need for thermometers, satellites, computer models etc. Close observation of vines is enough. And they got the picture more than a decade ago!

2) Those medieval english vineyards are still a common meme amoung denialists.

(Last but no least having some fun doesn't hurt. And me European am not afraid of being seen effete or elitist by certain 'merrican boneheads.)

John Baez wrote:

Please don't don't do idiosyncratic stuff like adding extra space or lines between sections. We've got a uniform style here, which we've evolved over months. There are hundreds of pages. If someone wants to make everything more beautiful, they should figure out a way to make it all more beautiful, make sure everyone here agrees that it's a good idea, and then implement that change uniformly, instead of making one page different from the rest.

Yeah. I'm quite aware of that, actually.

To be frank, it seems more important to spend time writing good clear explanations of important issues than to worry about how pretty the pages are.

Yeah. Yet: I was linking to that page from a climateprogress.org comment, where someone mentioned that wine article in TIME. So, I got a bit concerned about the "user-friendliness" of our page.

On the How to page, the design is perfect: Sections have just less than a screenful of text. On the Possible effects page, sections are longer. It is not that visually clear when a new and different section begins. The design is bad for long pages with long sections.

Sorry for being picky...

(In my last programmerz job I was dreaded for spotting every ugly icon and misagligned GIF color palette...)

Comment Source:rks said: >Viticulture! I can't believe the way people who want the world to stop burning fossil fuel think it is some sort of minor matter, so that it is worth mentioning all sorts of trivia Yeah, I know I'm possibly the only one finding this _seriously_ interesting. Here's the rationales: 1) Viticulture is a great non-techy/sciency early indicator of warming. No need for thermometers, satellites, computer models etc. Close observation of vines is enough. And they got the picture more than a decade ago! 2) Those medieval english vineyards are still a common meme amoung denialists. (Last but no least having some fun doesn't hurt. And me European am not afraid of being seen effete or elitist by certain 'merrican boneheads.) ------------------------------ John Baez wrote: >Please don't don't do idiosyncratic stuff like adding extra space or lines between sections. We've got a uniform style here, which we've evolved over months. There are hundreds of pages. If someone wants to make everything more beautiful, they should figure out a way to make it all more beautiful, make sure everyone here agrees that it's a good idea, and then implement that change uniformly, instead of making one page different from the rest. Yeah. I'm quite aware of that, actually. >To be frank, it seems more important to spend time writing good clear explanations of important issues than to worry about how pretty the pages are. Yeah. Yet: I was linking to that page from a climateprogress.org comment, where someone mentioned that wine article in TIME. So, I got a bit concerned about the "user-friendliness" of our page. _On the [[How to]] page, the design is perfect_: Sections have just less than a screenful of text. On the [[Possible effects]] page, sections are longer. It is not that visually clear when a new and different section begins. _The design is bad for long pages with long sections._ Sorry for being picky... (In my last programmerz job I was dreaded for spotting every ugly icon and misagligned GIF color palette...)
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15.

Added pine beetle forest kill and permafrost melt.

I guess John deleted the "2000s vs. 1950s drought" diagram by accident?

Diagram resurrected, plus 4 images of pine beetle damage and permaforst melt added.

Is it OK to have so many images?

The permafrost images are particularly breath taking. As the wiki parser couldn't take the original URLs I found out how to get the biggest pictures (bigger than the source manages to serve clickably). Don't miss clicking the links to these!

Next time I got time: Yummy pics of burning forest. (If it's OK...)

Comment Source:Added pine beetle forest kill and permafrost melt. I guess John deleted the "2000s vs. 1950s drought" diagram by accident? Diagram resurrected, plus 4 images of pine beetle damage and permaforst melt added. _Is it OK to have so many images?_ The permafrost images are particularly breath taking. As the wiki parser couldn't take the original URLs I found out how to get the biggest pictures (bigger than the source manages to serve clickably). _Don't miss clicking the links to these!_ Next time I got time: Yummy pics of burning forest. (If it's OK...)
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16.
edited April 2011

Martin wrote:

On the Possible effects page, sections are longer. It is not that visually clear when a new and different section begins. The design is bad for long pages with long sections.

Since Possible effects will eventually become enormous, don't be shy about breaking off the longer sections and making them into new pages, leaving a link and paragraph-long summary on Possible effects. That's the best solution I can quickly offer.

If you have a really good layout improvement that's not too much work to do, and are willing to

1. define clear rules about when it should be used,

2. convince us that it's a decent idea,

3. spend some time of your own time trying to impose it on lots of pages

4. explain it on the How To page and the "Conventions and Policies" category here in the Forum,

then go ahead and do it!

(For example, I am fussy about bibliographic formats, so I spend large amounts of time ensuring a consistent format for these. In general, to prevent the expansion of bureaucracy, I recommend that inventors of new rules be forced to spend a lot of time following them.)

I guess John deleted the "2000s vs. 1950s drought" diagram by accident?

Yes, sorry! Maybe I was trying to make it centered on the page, and screwed up? Or maybe I just screwed up? You can always go 'Back in time' and recover things that were accidentally deleted by idiots.

Comment Source:Martin wrote: > On the [[Possible effects]] page, sections are longer. It is not that visually clear when a new and different section begins. _The design is bad for long pages with long sections_. Since [[Possible effects]] will eventually become enormous, don't be shy about breaking off the longer sections and making them into new pages, leaving a link and paragraph-long summary on [[Possible effects]]. That's the best solution I can quickly offer. If you have a really good layout improvement that's not too much work to do, and are willing to 1. define clear rules about when it should be used, 2. convince us that it's a decent idea, 3. spend some time of your own time trying to impose it on lots of pages 4. explain it on the How To page and the "Conventions and Policies" category here in the Forum, then go ahead and do it! (For example, I am fussy about bibliographic formats, so I spend large amounts of time ensuring a consistent format for these. In general, to prevent the expansion of bureaucracy, I recommend that inventors of new rules be forced to spend a lot of time following them.) > I guess John deleted the "2000s vs. 1950s drought" diagram by accident? Yes, sorry! Maybe I was trying to make it centered on the page, and screwed up? Or maybe I just screwed up? You can always go 'Back in time' and recover things that were accidentally deleted by idiots.
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17.
edited March 2013
1. Added Frankenstorm Sandy. References to 2 brand new papers.

2. Added link to Gavin Schmidt's excellent 2006 writeup on Medieval warmth and English wine.

An "Anonymous Coward" was editing the page during the very first seconds/minutes I wanted to edit. Gone a few minutes later. Coincidence? Software glitch?

Comment Source:1. Added Frankenstorm Sandy. References to 2 brand new papers. 2. Added link to Gavin Schmidt's excellent 2006 writeup on Medieval warmth and English wine. ------------------- An "Anonymous Coward" was editing the page during the very first seconds/minutes I wanted to edit. Gone a few minutes later. Coincidence? Software glitch?
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18.
edited March 2013

Next to add: Food insecurity and political unrest (Syria)

Some notes lest I forget:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-the-scary-hidden-stressor.html

the rural farming town of Dara’a was the focal point for protests in the early stages of the opposition movement in 2011—a place that was especially hard hit by five years of drought and water scarcity and got little assistance from the Assad regime.

.................

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study published in October 2011 in the Journal of Climate found strong and observable evidence that the recent prolonged period of drought in the Mediterranean littoral and the Middle East is linked to climate change.79 On top of this, another of the agency’s studies found worrying agreement between observed climate impacts and future projections from climate models.

..............

79 “NOAA study: Human-caused climate change a major factor in more frequent Mediterranean droughts,” October 27, 2011, available at http://www.noaanews. noaa.gov/stories2011/20111027_drought.html.

Comment Source:Next to add: Food insecurity and political unrest (Syria) -------------------- Some notes lest I forget: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-the-scary-hidden-stressor.html > the rural farming town of Dara’a was the focal point for protests in the early stages of the opposition movement in 2011—a place that was especially hard hit by five years of drought and water scarcity and got little assistance from the Assad regime. >................. > A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study published in October 2011 in the Journal of Climate found strong and observable evidence that the recent prolonged period of drought in the Mediterranean littoral and the Middle East is linked to climate change.79 On top of this, another of the agency’s studies found worrying agreement between observed climate impacts and future projections from climate models. >.............. >79 “NOAA study: Human-caused climate change a major factor in more frequent Mediterranean droughts,” October 27, 2011, available at http://www.noaanews. noaa.gov/stories2011/20111027_drought.html. http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5911/240.abstract