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Blog - El Nino project (part 1)

I want us to write a series of blog articles on our new El Niño project! Here's a draft of the first:

It could be finished, if the rest of you are happy with it! It has limited goals:

  • giving a very rough idea of our project, no technical details

  • saying why it's important

  • begging for help, but telling people to wait until they know a bit more about what we're doing

  • saying what El Niño is

Let me know what you think! If I don't get any improvements in the next two days, I'll publish this.

I don't want to add more detail to this post, so ideally improvements would simply consist of ways to make it more attractive.

Comments

  • 1.

    Jim pointed out this article, dated yesterday, titled Doubts surface over 2014 El Nino development. It might be nice to end with that.

    Comment Source:Jim pointed out this [article](http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/doubts-surface-over-2014-el-nino-development-as-warming-stalls.html), dated yesterday, titled *Doubts surface over 2014 El Nino development*. It might be nice to end with that.
  • 2.

    You couldn't resist suggesting that I add more information - nobody ever can. People hardly ever focus on reducing the amount of unnecessary information, the clutter that makes stuff hard to read.

    But okay: I'll add a remark and graph at the end, to heighten the suspense.

    Comment Source:You couldn't resist suggesting that I add more information - nobody ever can. People hardly ever focus on _reducing_ the amount of _unnecessary_ information, the clutter that makes stuff hard to read. But okay: I'll add a remark and graph at the end, to heighten the suspense.
  • 3.

    This may increase the word count even more.

    trade winds blow west across the Pacific Ocean in a strong way

    I'm used to reading about easterly trade winds. Of course easterly winds blow west, but it distracted me. Perhaps

    trade winds blow strongly from east to west across the Pacific Ocean

    Comment Source:This may increase the word count even more. > trade winds blow west across the Pacific Ocean in a strong way I'm used to reading about easterly trade winds. Of course easterly winds blow west, but it distracted me. Perhaps > trade winds blow strongly from east to west across the Pacific Ocean
  • 4.
    edited June 2014

    Okay, that sounds good. In my next installment I'm planning to remind people that easterlies blow west from the eastern Pacific (near the Wild West) to the western Pacific (near the Far East).

    Comment Source:Okay, that sounds good. In my next installment I'm planning to remind people that easterlies blow west from the eastern Pacific (near the Wild West) to the western Pacific (near the Far East).
  • 5.
    edited June 2014

    Actually all this east/west stuff is a bit distracting and confusing, for the reasons explained in my previous comment. So I eliminated it:

    During La Niña years, trade winds blow across the Pacific Ocean from the Americas to Asia in a strong way. So, warm surface water gets pushed toward Asia. Warmer oceans there create more clouds and rain there. The other side of the Pacific gets cooler, so there is less rain in many parts of the Americas.

    During El Niño years, trade winds in the tropical Pacific weaken, and blobs of warm surface water move back toward the Americas So, the eastern part of the Pacific warms up. We generaly get more rain in the Americas... but less in Asia.

    This is also simplified because some parts of the Americas seem to show the opposite rain trends... but never mind.

    Comment Source:Actually all this east/west stuff is a bit distracting and confusing, for the reasons explained in my previous comment. So I eliminated it: > During <b>La Ni&ntilde;a</b> years, trade winds blow across the Pacific Ocean from the Americas to Asia in a strong way. So, warm surface water gets pushed toward Asia. Warmer oceans there create more clouds and rain there. The other side of the Pacific gets cooler, so there is less rain in many parts of the Americas. > During <b>El Ni&ntilde;o</b> years, trade winds in the tropical Pacific weaken, and blobs of warm surface water move back toward the Americas So, the eastern part of the Pacific warms up. We generaly get more rain in the Americas... but less in Asia. This is also simplified because some parts of the Americas seem to show the opposite rain trends... but never mind.
  • 6.

    Great!

    Comment Source:Great!
  • 7.
    edited June 2014

    Okay, great - I'll go ahead and post this at 1 am GMT 20 June 2014. It's good to get the ball rolling...

    Comment Source:Okay, great - I'll go ahead and post this at 1 am GMT 20 June 2014. It's good to get the ball rolling...
  • 8.

    I posted the article, announced it on G+, and then realized I should add a little section at the end for people who are eager to get rolling:

    References

    If you can't wait to dive in, start here:

    Experiments in El Niño detection and prediction, Azimuth Forum.

    To join this discussion, join the forum by following these instructions:

    Forum help.

    This is the paper that got us excited:

    • Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Very early warning of next El Niño, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2014.

    It's not yet freely available, but a lot of the methodology comes from this free paper:

    • Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 30 May 2013. (For more discussion, go to the Azimuth Forum.)

    Comment Source:I [posted the article](http://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/el-nio-project-part-1/), [announced it on G+](https://plus.google.com/u/0/117663015413546257905/posts/PttSwx6eJiY), and then realized I should add a little section at the end for people who are eager to get rolling: <h3> References </h3> If you can't wait to dive in, start here: &bull; <a href="http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/1358/experiments-in-el-nino-detection-and-prediction/?Focus=10683">Experiments in El Ni&ntilde;o detection and prediction</a>, Azimuth Forum. To join this discussion, join the forum by following these instructions: &bull; <a href="http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Forum+help">Forum help</a>. This is the paper that got us excited: &bull; Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Very early warning of next El Niño, <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111"><i>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</i></a>, February 2014. It's not yet freely available, but a lot of the methodology comes from this free paper: &bull; Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/06/26/1309353110.full.pdf+html">Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection</a>, <i>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</i>, 30 May 2013. (For more discussion, <a href="http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/1360/paper-ludescher-et-al-improved-el-nino-forecasting-by-cooperativity-detection/?Focus=10743">go to the Azimuth Forum</a>.)
  • 9.
    edited June 2014

    I posted the article, announced it on G+, and then realized I should add a little section at the end for people who are eager to get rolling:

    Comment Source:I [posted the article](http://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/el-nio-project-part-1/), [announced it on G+](https://plus.google.com/u/0/117663015413546257905/posts/PttSwx6eJiY), and then realized I should add a little section at the end for people who are eager to get rolling:
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