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Here's a draft of part 2:
It's a sketchy introduction to the - still controversial - physics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
Reason: even though we're going to do a lot of data analysis, not modelling, our work will be "blind" if we don't know anything about how the ENSO actually works.
The post after this will dive into the work of Ludescher et al.