Furthermore, based on current values of $S(t)$ between September 7 and September 17 of last year, their threshold predicts the return of El NiƱo in 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood.

They state that this is in contrast to the CPC/IRI consensus probabilistic ENSO forces yielding a 1-in-5 likelihood for an ENSO event next year, which increased to a 1-in-3 likelihood by November 2013.