In [this comment](http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/1382/el-nino-project-thinking-about-the-next-steps/?Focus=11493#Comment_11493) John pointed to some [current work](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion) on dynamical and statistical models for El Nino prediction. In particular see the "Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)" under "Expert Discussions/Assessments".

It would be good to find out more about these models and what data and data reduction they use.