The thermodynamical models for atmospherics and oceanics are far from understood:

[Energy transports by ocean and atmosphere based on an entropy extremum principle](http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01031905)

He questions some Extremum techniques, in other words much is not known even how to model these entropic models.

This is a better approach:

[TOA: top-of-atmosphere flux](http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-4-4-1.html)

The work requires using actual top of the atmosphere satellite data for flux of radiation and build models for forecasting or categorizing the flux. This IMHO is a sound ground for scientific investigation. Again I count on John to clarify these approaches and thoughts.

Here again some significant anomalies are related to water:

>It appears to be related in part to changes in the nature of tropical clouds (Wielicki et al., 2002a), based on the smaller changes in the clear-sky component of the radiative fluxes (Wong et al., 2000; Allan and Slingo, 2002), and appears to be statistically distinct from the spatial signals associated with ENSO (Allan and Slingo, 2002; Chen et al., 2002).

Dara