The _second_ big thing is that [Susanne Still](http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sstill/) and a grad student of hers have written software that uses similar information-theoretic ideas to make predictions of time series given past data and to estimate _the optimal model given constraints on how much information the model can use_. Even better, my student [[Blake Pollard]] is working with her to apply this software to El Niño data!

He will start with a simple demonstration just to help her write a paper on this subject. But we may expand this to a larger project: to study Niño and other climate phenomena using ideas from information theory!

This is very nice because again it's compatible with a lot of things I already want to do, and things the Azimuth Code Project is starting to do... and it begins to _connect_ some of these ideas.

Here is some reading material suggested by Susanne:

* Naftali Tishby, Fernando C. Pereira and William Bialek, [The information bottleneck method](http://www.cnbc.cmu.edu/cns/papers/Tishby-NC-1999.pdf).

* Susanne Still, James P. Crutchfield and Christopher J. Ellison, [Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture](http://arxiv.org/abs/0708.1580).

* Susanne Still and William Bialek, [How many clusters? an information-theoretic perspective](http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sstill/HowManyClusters.pdf).

* Susanne Still, [Information theoretic approach to interactive learning](http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sstill/Still_IL2009_EPL.pdf).

* Susanne Still, [Information bottleneck approach to predictive inference](http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/16/2/968). (Part of a [special issue of _Entropy_ on the information bottleneck method](http://www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy/special_issues/bottleneck-method).)

* Susanne Still, David A. Sivak, Anthony J. Bell and Gavin E. Crooks [The thermodynamics of prediction](http://arxiv.org/abs/1203.3271).

If you think you're getting bombarded with too many references, don't worry! I will read a bunch of this stuff and explain it on the blog. You just need to read the blog articles. (I know, that's already hard enough!)

Anyway, I'm very excited.

He will start with a simple demonstration just to help her write a paper on this subject. But we may expand this to a larger project: to study Niño and other climate phenomena using ideas from information theory!

This is very nice because again it's compatible with a lot of things I already want to do, and things the Azimuth Code Project is starting to do... and it begins to _connect_ some of these ideas.

Here is some reading material suggested by Susanne:

* Naftali Tishby, Fernando C. Pereira and William Bialek, [The information bottleneck method](http://www.cnbc.cmu.edu/cns/papers/Tishby-NC-1999.pdf).

* Susanne Still, James P. Crutchfield and Christopher J. Ellison, [Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture](http://arxiv.org/abs/0708.1580).

* Susanne Still and William Bialek, [How many clusters? an information-theoretic perspective](http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sstill/HowManyClusters.pdf).

* Susanne Still, [Information theoretic approach to interactive learning](http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sstill/Still_IL2009_EPL.pdf).

* Susanne Still, [Information bottleneck approach to predictive inference](http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/16/2/968). (Part of a [special issue of _Entropy_ on the information bottleneck method](http://www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy/special_issues/bottleneck-method).)

* Susanne Still, David A. Sivak, Anthony J. Bell and Gavin E. Crooks [The thermodynamics of prediction](http://arxiv.org/abs/1203.3271).

If you think you're getting bombarded with too many references, don't worry! I will read a bunch of this stuff and explain it on the blog. You just need to read the blog articles. (I know, that's already hard enough!)

Anyway, I'm very excited.