Daniel wrote:

> I have run an [ExtraTreesRegressor](http://scikit-learn.org/dev/modules/generated/sklearn.ensemble.ExtraTreesRegressor.html), a random forest variant, to predict the anomaly directly from the whole raw temperature map 6 months before. the results are [here](https://www.googledrive.com/host/0B4cyIPgV_Vxrb2wxUnFteXVwWHM). Out out of the 778 months available I trained on the first 400 and tested on the remaining 378. The sources for this are also in the same directory.

That's great! Can you explain some things?

You've got a graph produced by

`zz=xcorr(test.predicted, test.true, maxlags=None)`

with a big spike at zero. What is this? Something like a correlation between what you predicted and the true value, as a function of... what?