Paul where are the **correlation** computations you are noting, I do not see them. I read the paper and understand nothing, as a matter of computing.

Also this is their forecast system:

[POAMA](http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/elim/pdf.dir/2011mwr.LimEtAl.pdf)

It is just postmortem stats used to predict the future using the Null Hypothesis!

Paper is overloaded with huge reference list which I have no idea how a human mind could keep track.