In #32 the IOD-SOI lag of 17 months seems worth investigating. The Torrence paper gives a 4.6 month lag between the DMI and sea level pressure (SLP) in the western Pacific. Naively, if it takes 3 months in an El Nino for the warm water volume to cross the Pacific from west to east then I might expect IOD changes to preceed an El Nino by 7 months.

Can the IOD account for some of the unexplained residual variance in the Pukite QBO-TSO-CW (QTC) sloshing model between QTC and the SOI?

I found the Tsonis El Nino image posted at #8 has an interesting locations for high-degree supernodes; in particular, the supernode in off the eastern coast of Indo-China is located where I think the Kurosho current flows. I'm still trying to build up a picture of the meridional extents of the warm water volume which seemed to be much further south off the eastern Australian coast.

PS. I've got the thermocline data but I've currently got a work problem: my Lenovo notebook Centos-6.5 setup has borked so the screen will only display on battery so I have to install a proper operating system ie. NixOS and rebuild my development environment.