> "Are there some reasons as to why BEST is a more appropriate index for prediction purposes than the MEI which presumably an improvement on SOI?"

The MEI is actually pretty bad for this kind of analysis according to a climate skeptic site. That is where I got the idea for looking at BEST, believe it or not !


This was just a while ago

>Ian Wilson says:

>November 17, 2014 at 12:35 pm

>jdmcl,

>The start of an El Nino event is determined from the Bivariate EnSo Time Series (BEST) index. This index effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Nino 3.4 SST anomaly index). If you are not happy with that you be taking it up with the people that created this index:

>Smith, C.A. and P. Sardeshmukh – The Effect of ENSO on the Intraseasonal Variance of Surface Temperature in Winter., International J. of Climatology, 2000, 20 1543-1557.
Ref: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/

>In my own experience the MEI index is not very good at identifying the strength of El Nino events. The SOI and Nino 3.4 are a direct measure of the existing conditions in the Pacific basin
where as the MEI index is really a proxy that was designed to measure those conditions when
direct observations were unavailable.

>Nowhere in my analysis have I assumed that the winds on their own cause El Nino’s. In fact , I have used the BEST index to delineate an El Nino event for the very reason that these events are part of a coupled oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon known as the ENSO.

I look at skeptic sites because they are very determined to prove AGW wrong. Unfortunately they don't have science on their side and inadvertently end up scoring #OwnGoals