The ENSO model I use is very similar to an electrical circuit made of resistors, inductors and capacitors. Because the motion of the ocean appears to be strongly [inviscid](, we ignore the resistor. So we have a resonant LC circuit as described on


The input terminal corresponds to the forcing function voltage v(t) and the output terminal to the current i(t). The current is essentially what we measure as a response to the forcing function coupled with the resonant circuit. This configuration reduces to a second-order differential equation, which forms the basis of the oceanic sloshing model.

The twist is that the forcing also causes a temporal modification in the characteristic frequency of the resonant circuit. This is further described in the sloshing literature as a Mathieu (single sinusoid) or Hill (multiple sinusoids as a Fourier series) differential equation.

So just figure out the forcing function (QBO ...) the characteristic frequency (see Clarke) and tweak the parameters of the Hill perturbation and one can get an excellent fit to an ENSO measure such as SOI. We create error margins on the signal by looking at the excursions of the oppositely polarized dipole (the noisy Tahiti and Darwin signals) and fill the inner envelope with yellow. The bottom panel shows a representation of the actual signal and the region filled in yellow now represents where the model goes outside the error margins.


That's what is called an elevator pitch aimed at an engineer. Create a representative analogous model to the fruit-fly model and pitch that.