You still haven't answered why you have not tried to fit your model to ENSO data in the interval 1880 to 1980. That is perfectly good data to test against.

As I said before, I wouldn't be surprised if your correlation coefficient isn't at least 0.995 [in the chart you posted](15536/#Comment_15536) over the 30-year fitting interval. You must work with dozens of degrees of freedom in your model to get that kind of agreement. One would think that the noise in the data itself would limit how close a fit one can get. Consider that the SOI dipole pair of Tahiti and Darwin doesn't have a correlation coefficient much better than -0.80 and that should be -1 if it accurately reflects an actual dipole behavior. The reason it doesn't come close is measurement noise, as for example, there may be a hurricane in Tahiti that isn't impacting Darwin and that will throw off the differential readings for at least a month.

If I had a correlation coefficient greater than 0.99, I would _immediately_ try it out on the 1880 to 1980 data set. Even if it wasn't still 0.99, and moved down around 0.7 to 0.8, it would indicate which of the factors were the most important.

Yet it really bothers me that you have been working on this for how many months or years, and you still haven't applied the 1880 to 1980 data yet? I did that from day one ! There are really no controlled experiments you can do in climate science, and so all you have to work with is empirical data. For someone not to use the available data indicates to me that you may be naive about the nature of the behavior, or are trying to hide something.


* Use all available data
* Explain exactly what you are doing so someone else can reproduce it
* Apply a standard metric to your result, for example a correlation coefficient and number of degrees of freedom

I can't think of three more important requirements in research analysis, and the fact that you are doing none of these has me frustrated.

If you don't do these, people will continue to assume that you are:

* Cherry picking
* Appealing to personal trust
* Working with smoke and mirrors