Congratulations on getting a slot at the AGU meeting. Will you be updating your arXiv paper for it?
If it's appropriate I think I remember John (Baez) suggesting that you might do some ENSO forecasts for, say, the next 15 or 20 years, and escrow them on the Azimuth wiki. I think you can then demonstrate your level of confidence at the AGU, letting them know you're prepared to put your money where your mouth is, as they say. Best wishes for your presentation.