That's cool. Making predictions for fossil fuel depletion is a less harrowing task than for climate. First of all, depletion is purely statistical and probabilistic so there is less a binary right or wrong answer to the result. Secondly, there is more wiggle room since humans are involved and they don't always follow the laws of physics. Third, the data for fossil fuels is so bad that the models are vitally important to make sense of what's happening. The results have to be judged on that.

Contrast that to a deterministic climate model, where you will be hung out to dry if it doesn't predict the next cycle. You really have to walk on egg shells if its all geophysics you are talking about. Think about a predictive tidal model. If you get that wrong and the owner of some boat finds it dry-docked on the rocks, he will go somewhere else for predictions.

That's why I am really concentrating on getting the physics correct.