Jim,
The Astudillo paper asserted that ENSO was deterministic apart from the disturbance right after 1980. They did not mention a phase flip specifically.
The phase reversal idea came from consideration of this disturbance with respect to a biennial mode, with supplemental references here:
http://contextearth.com/2016/05/13/enso-phase-reversal/
And this wavelet graph by Roundy shows how standing modes of the SST got inverted after 1980 but came back in sync around 2000:
Roundy, P.E. "On the interpretation of EOF analysis of ENSO, atmospheric Kelvin waves, and the MJO." Journal of Climate 28.3 (2015): 1148-1165.
The Astudillo paper asserted that ENSO was deterministic apart from the disturbance right after 1980. They did not mention a phase flip specifically.
The phase reversal idea came from consideration of this disturbance with respect to a biennial mode, with supplemental references here:
http://contextearth.com/2016/05/13/enso-phase-reversal/
And this wavelet graph by Roundy shows how standing modes of the SST got inverted after 1980 but came back in sync around 2000:
Roundy, P.E. "On the interpretation of EOF analysis of ENSO, atmospheric Kelvin waves, and the MJO." Journal of Climate 28.3 (2015): 1148-1165.
Version 2.1.8p2
