nad said:
> ". So with strange QBO behaviour I mean the last strange QBO in 2015/2016 which we discussed [here this August]( All this looks very very bad."

I find it odd to talk about strange behavior in QBO considering that I still haven't seen a valid physical model of QBO that explains the periodic behavior from 1953 on up. Unless you want to believe in the AGW denier Lindzen's QBO model -- but that model can't even predict the period!

A still unanswered question from the consensus science is why does the QBO flip direction every ~28 months?
If it is because of the lunisolar nodal alignment that happens to occur with that exact same period, then you have to start with that premise. And then you should note that within the past year we have had a perigee of the moon with the closest distance to the earth simultaneous with a very full moon since 1948 (i.e. the most super of the supermoons). And 1948 was before the QBO measurements began, so that we have no data to compare against. So saying it's "strange" is simply a value judgement.

I have seen some indication from the online meteorologists that the QBO is back in sync, so the better assumption is that any transient may be due to a stronger perigee forcing. And once that excess forcing disappears, it goes back to aligning with the temporal boundary conditions.

I have run my model of QBO that I presented at AGU this past week and compared it against recent QBO data and can tell you that there is indeed some type of hiccup for the recent 3o hPa data .


Note that this was based on training data from 1953 to 1985 against the major lunar tidal periods, and you can note that most of the peaks sharply align in the extrapolation post 1985 -- until we get to ~2014, where you can see the peaks go in opposite directions. It could also be that this past year's El Nino was strong enough to perturb the lunar forcing enough to transiently force it out of its path.

But to have a real discussion on this means that it has to be a two-way street. I am putting effort into this lunisolar forcing model so that is what I will be talking about. I am not going to go on tangent concerning methane, because methane isn't what is causing the fundamental 28 month period.