I've been thinking the history of these behaviors. Pierre-Simon Laplace came up with his tidal equations in 1776. Lord Rayleigh wrote about wave bifurcations around 1880. Ocean tides and their mechanism had been known forever, but only in the 1900's did they have a detailed approach to mathematically define the cycles (i.e. Doodson arguments).

Chandler discovered the earth's polar wobble in 1891. Scientists knew right away that there was a seasonal wobble that was easily explained by a forced factor. But why couldn't they determine the lunar factor?

The QBO was known in the 1950's I think, but only in the 1960's did they have enough data to notice the strong periodicity. If the Chandler wobble mechanism had been known (hypothetically) it would have been simple to adapt that mechanism to QBO through the application of Laplace's equations. The anti-AGW scientist Richard Lindzen spent his career trying to convince everyone of his overly complex model, and now [he is left spending his time sending petitions to Trump to have the USA withdraw from the Paris climate accords](http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-scientists-urging-trump-to-embrace-carbon-among-the-biggest-climate-experts-around). Sad.

And ENSO came a little later, with most scientist bewildered by the near chaotic oscillations observed. Yet, if they would have learned from the (hypothetical) models for the Chandler wobble and QBO and the sloshing mechanisms described by Rayleigh, they may have been able to de-convolute the cycles to see once again the lunisolar forcing.

I bring up this history, because I received this comment via Twitter from a well-regarded climate scientist:


The implication is that all current models may be wrong if these simple models of lunar forcing are correct.