This is the last of the ENSO charts.

This is how conventional tidal prediction is done:

![](https://i2.wp.com/imageshack.com/a/img923/7308/kqLPyD.png)

This is an ENSO model fit to SOI data. Same tidal analysis algorithm is used but applying the annual solar cycle and monthly/fortnightly lunar cycles instead of the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle.

![](https://imageshack.com/a/img922/4236/0A8dDe.png)

This is an expanded view, with the corelation coefficient of 0.73:

![](https://imageshack.com/a/img924/3788/Z2qQ19.png)

This is a fit trained on the 1880-1950 interval (CC=0.76) and cross-validated on the post-1950 data

![](https://imageshack.com/a/img923/8103/Cii6GI.png)

This is a fit trained on the post-1950 interval (CC=0.77) and cross-validated on the 1880-1950 data

![](https://imageshack.com/a/img923/3949/hKwV9z.png)

Like conventional tidal prediction, very little overfitting is observed. Most of what is considered noise in the SOI data is actually the tidal forcing signal.