Here is a recent update to the quantitative QBO model. The telling point about these kinds of alignments based on known fixed inputs is that they either work or they don't -- there is no middle ground. For example, two sine waves that have slightly different frequencies will have zero correlation over the long term.

If they do match with a high correlation, it's a matter of either treating it as a plausible model *OR* rejecting it as a coincidence given that there is something fundamentally wrong in the physics. In every atmospheric or oceanic model, the null hypothesis should always be either diurnal, annual, semi-annual, or tidal forcing. To reject the null hypothesis should take an equally convincing argument.

https://geoenergymath.com/2019/05/27/detailed-forcing-of-qbo/

If they do match with a high correlation, it's a matter of either treating it as a plausible model *OR* rejecting it as a coincidence given that there is something fundamentally wrong in the physics. In every atmospheric or oceanic model, the null hypothesis should always be either diurnal, annual, semi-annual, or tidal forcing. To reject the null hypothesis should take an equally convincing argument.

https://geoenergymath.com/2019/05/27/detailed-forcing-of-qbo/