From the initial comment I contributed @ [#2](https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/2160/#Comment_2160), one application of logistic-like formulations is to model oil depletion from a finite population of reserves. Now, with the awareness brought on by the coronavirus crisis, one can also see how the "flattening of the curve" will impact future oil production.



This is at least a 10% reduction in production, which will flatten the current consumption curve and prolong the duration to the asymptotic limit in cumulative production (the URR shown in #15). Of course, with this kind of non-stationarity in the flow, the logistic function by itself no longer works, so we need to apply a stochastic model that provides the possibility for perturbations. This is the Oil Shock Model, derived as a directed graph analogous to a compartmental flow, described here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119434351.ch5

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I'm predicting that at some point John will comment on the success (so far) of Singapore in almost completely flattening the curve



John responded here : https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1240023988878725120