This is data from https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

Scroll down the page where the data link is and connect or download the confirmed cases data set.

![](https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9254/SmY8VL.png)

This is a Hubbert Linearization for Italy as described in [comment #42](https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/21972/#Comment_21972)

![](https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9329/LJPXLH.png)

This is a purely mechanical fit, plotting n/N vs N and then selecting the Add Trendline on Excel with a sufficient forecast interval to intercept the x-axis.