Hi David and Paul, I wonder if you know of a wiki or site online where I might share a simple model
that I've developed for understanding how the coronavirus will play out in various countries.
The basic idea is that the ratio "New Cases (in the last day) / Total Cases" is very helpful for understanding the nature of the exponential growth in cases. On March 23, I wrote a letter, which you can find at that page, explaining how dire the situation is. The main point is that only China and South Korea have managed to get the virus under control, and they did it by chasing it down, which means finding absolutely every sick person and all of their contacts, and isolating them.
It's simply not enough to have a quarantine. In the best case, Italy has achieved a reduction down to a growth rate 6%. But that still means doubling every 12 days. Which means that just about everybody in the country will get sick. The US has brought its growth rate down from 25% to 13%, but it is still means doubling every 6 days. How low can these rates go? The list of countries lets us study how the actions taken match up with the lower growth rate achieved.
I'm surprised that this number is not referenced as it seems to be the most informative number to look at, I think. So I'm wondering where to share that. I thought there was a wiki for coronavirus volunteers but I can't find it now.