Paul, thank you for pointing me to your comments about Hubbert Linearization. Do you think that model is valid here? How would you argue validity?

My personal viewpoint is that I'm skeptical that such linearity will hold here. I see two cases: either we can and do chase down each and every case, or we can't and don't. If we don't chase down every case, then we are simply slowing down the exponential spread, but it is still exponential. In the chart I made, only South Korea and China seem to have a chance of having snuffed out the virus. In the case of Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan, the growth rates continue at 6% or higher. Italy has brought it down to 6%. But what is the reason for thinking that it can be brought down even lower? That is still doubling every 12 days or so.

Dr.Birk showed a graph that the New Cases per day in Italy has dropped. But that may be simply a dip in the rate of growth. If the rate of growth does not dip further, then the exponential growth is maintained. Basically, I am saying that the virus spreads perniciously and if you don't chase it down, it simply won't snuff itself out until it has infected most everybody.