I made a spreadsheet with some calculations on when the peak might occur given a particular growth rate. Consider countries currently ranging from a 2000 cases per million (Spain) to 200 cases per million (Turkey). If a 6% rate is achieved, then the peak will be reached in 13 weeks (Spain) to 18 weeks (Turkey).

  • 3%: from 26 to 36 weeks with 9% of population sick at peak
  • 4%: from 20 to 27 weeks with 12%
  • 5%: 16 - 22 with 14%
  • 6%: 13 - 18 with 17%
  • 7%: 12 - 16 with 19%
  • 8%: 10 - 14 with 21%
  • 9%: 9 - 12 with 23%
  • 10%: 8 - 11 with 24%
  • 11%: 8 - 10 with 26%
  • 12%-13%: 7 - 9 with 28%
  • 14%-16%: 6 - 7 with 31%
  • 17%-20%: 5 - 6 with 35%
  • 21%-24%: 4 - 5 with 38%
  • 25%-30%: 4 with 41%


My main point is that I think that the various quarantine policies may slow the exponential growth but it still remains exponential until it reaches the peak. I am curious if I'm wrong. If I'm not wrong, then it would be good to see more realistic projections for what will happen. But, in any event, the projections do seem to be more realistic nowadays.

Is there any point to making such calculations?