In summary, I have seen a lot of wishful thinking, dubious models and misinterpretations of the S-curve model. What happened in China and South Korea had nothing to do with the logistic curve, but there was this notion that other countries will automatically have the same results without the effort of chasing down the virus. A logistic curve only kicks in when so many people have gotten sick that there are few left to get infected. Basically, a logistic curve only tells you how things die down after peak. Before the peak you basically have exponential growth unless you can chase down the virus and snuff it out.

That is why at this stage it is all about exponential growth rates and how they express various possible quarantine policies. So the point would be to focus on that number in policy communication. And to realize that the lower the number, the longer the quarantine, which if we are lucky, would be four months to the peak, and perhaps another four months after that. And that the world will be compartmentalized for quite a bit longer than that. And that the developing world will likely have higher growth rates and a huge catastrophe within four to six weeks. It would not be suprising to have death rates of 5% or whatever is the number of acute cases that need intensive care which won't be available. And to realize that there is no way to avoid most everybody on the planet getting sick unless the virus is completely chased down, which seems less and less possible.

I think this is simple math, ordinary mathematical thinking, which I suggest could be one main contribution of the Azimuth Project. Distilling ideas like a propagation rate, a carbon budget, a tipping point, etc.