Haven't posted too much more as it really does appear that much of the predictive modeling involves aspects of game theory. In other words, high morbidity projections are used to convince the public to participate in mitigation procedures such as social distancing and partial quarantines. This then has the effect of making the projections wrong when put into practice. Then the second-guessing comes in that the original analysts failed with respect to predictive modeling. No-win on this one.

Leave with these posts over at http://peakoilbarrel.com/the-oil-shock-model-and-compartmental-models/ or https://geoenergymath.com/2020/04/01/the-oil-shock-model-and-compartmental-models/

A similar game-theoretic behavior underlies resource depletion but it is in slow-motion compared to pandemic modeling.