David,
I don't think even climate scientists understand any of this. The only geophysics-based science I put a lot of trust in comes from NASA JPL, because their job depends on getting these things right. For example, on the LOD (length-of-day) measurements, getting this time-series analyzed correctly has implications on all sorts of real-world problems, The small variation in LOD is exactly what is used to correct for leap-seconds in the calibrated clocks that all GPS systems and satellite systems rely on.

I know about this because I was one of the few people that has had the chance to work with these algorithms when I worked on a GPS system several years ago. So when a leap-second update came in from the official time-keepers at IERS, we had to make sure as developers that we updated this correctly in our software (and also test it before hand with simulated drivers). If we missed a leap-second, the fact that all the GPS satellite orbits also relied on this, any calculation of position would be off. see this site: https://timetoolsltd.com/gps/gps-ntp-server/

So my concern is that since no one has any interest in any of this geophysics stuff except for the scientists at NASA JPL, and even they apparently have issues because doing research on climate science is NOT part of their charter. Take for instance, this fellow Steven Marcus who wrote the paper that I referenced above. He did work at NASA JPL for years and must have researched earth rotation physics for much of that time. Yet the paper is not sponsored by NASA JPL, as Dr. Marcus gives his affiliation only as "Private Researcher, Santa Monica, California".

In fact, if you follow the climate science that NASA JPL does, you will find a cookie-crumb trail of interesting climate research leads followed by scientists that have tried to do spin-off research on their own. Google a scientist named Clair Perigaud, and you will find that she wrote many papers and presentations connecting lunar forcing to climate over 10 years ago and then tried to spin it off with a project called http://moonclimate.org. On that site you will find NASA JPL proposals that were not funded and then she apparently gave up.

I may be in too deep on this stuff but that's the way that it is. The state of fundamental research in the USA is hosed under Trump and it won't be getting any better soon. All of this geophysics is linked at an incredibly detailed level and you won't be seeing climate scientists from NOAA or NCAR or universities studying climate change doing any of this either, as they are in too deep under the weight of their behemoth GCM models. The earth is spinning away and they are essentially clueless on all these hints that people like Marcus are putting right in front of their eyes. I recommend you read the Marcus paper and tell me if you can follow his points : https://journals.ametsoc.org/ei/article/20/4/1/629 is open-sourced. Marcus actually thinks that perhaps the change is related to liquid core interactions.

In summary, the interesting part of the AGW signal is what causes the long term variations highlighted below wrt the two troughs (or the peak around 1940) in the GISS temperature time-series:

![](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/V3vsV2/LOTI_v2+v3.gif)


As I said in the previous comment that there appears to be close to zero interest in pursuing any of these leads.