Paul, you did not address the question as stated. What is your model's Tidal-based ENSO Prediction for the next few cycles? It should reliably predict when short or long periods will occur.
You write: "Alas, the consensus will point to ENSO as being a chaotically-driven behavior as that is a default rationale if they are not able to come up with an adequate physics-based model."
"Chaotically-driven behavior" is in fact "an adequate physics-based model," at least since Poincaré. Chaos science is well established, not just a "default rationale".