> "ENSO predictions will slowly improve, until predicting a few cycles ahead should be possible, but not much better"

It's not about the predictions, but about the physics. No one makes any progress in science by throwing darts while blindfolded. There are many kinds of analyses one can do without relying on predictions as the only means to further understanding.

This was tweeted yesterday by the NASA climate science chief Gavin Schmidt



I responded



![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtzDsCAXYAAi-HZ.jpg)

One mention in the ENSO literature on double-sideband modulation
https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/22/055/22055016.pdf

Got some discussion going last year on Gavin's blog:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/03/why-are-so-many-solar-climate-papers-flawed/