True, our investigation here is about ENSO-QBO behavior. The predicted sensitivity is of a nature that a slight difference now in conditions can completely alter future quasi-periodicity inflection, the longer the time-frame, the more divergent. Indirect evidence of ENSO chaos is NOAA's limited prediction capability, which you take as evidence they are "laughably ignorant about how to do physics".

This is an ENSO Chaos view-

Published: 26 March 2014
Climate science

A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño
Pedro DiNezio
Nature volume 507, pages437–439(2014)

"Climate simulations suggest that multi-decadal periods of high and low variability in the phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be entirely unpredictable."