PaulP: "Doing predictions is way down on the list of necessary tasks to complete, but I can see how readers raised with a horse-race mentality would consider it important."
Agreed. That is why I stated your "calculated predictions for the 2280 window will eventually serve the purpose", and that I am a "turtle" for you to be patient with (PM). Lets let the NOAA Ensemble Model be the "horse-race".
My understanding of the topic here is to best account for the evident Lunisolar Signal in the ENSO-QBO data. The Lunisolar Crosstalk Hypothesis is in fact rather ENSO-QBO non-predictive in only identifying Crosstalk Noise. At best it can improve the predictions of the Ensemble if the Crosstalk is filtered out (but not residual Forcing). If true, Crosstalk Noise does render your model less predictive than expected, insofar as Forcing may have been overestimated.
Agreed. That is why I stated your "calculated predictions for the 2280 window will eventually serve the purpose", and that I am a "turtle" for you to be patient with (PM). Lets let the NOAA Ensemble Model be the "horse-race".
My understanding of the topic here is to best account for the evident Lunisolar Signal in the ENSO-QBO data. The Lunisolar Crosstalk Hypothesis is in fact rather ENSO-QBO non-predictive in only identifying Crosstalk Noise. At best it can improve the predictions of the Ensemble if the Crosstalk is filtered out (but not residual Forcing). If true, Crosstalk Noise does render your model less predictive than expected, insofar as Forcing may have been overestimated.
Version 2.1.8p2
