PaulP: "sound awfully naive about data analysis, as if you have never actually done much of it"

Again, I am hardly naïve about heuristic data analysis, which for for you, "does not lead anywhere". If you are not yet able to gather that the orbital state is picked up directly by the sensor arrays, that's naivete.

There are uncounted contributions to the discussion that you need not consider helpful, like introducing the ENSO Ensemble and Jupiter QQO Models for comparison, and better defining basic terms like "heuristics" and "chaos".

You have been helpful too; its not a one-sided exchange.