I disagree. The longer term LOD variation was removed in in the inset, thus reducing the fluctuation extremes from 2 to 1.
This is the paper by Chao cited in the figure:
http://ivs.nict.go.jp/mirror/publications/gm2004/chao/
Here is another from Ch…
Interesting study. There are several timescales involved in LOD changes.
The shortest time-scale is directly related to diurnal and semidiurnal lunisolar tides. This one also impacts earthquakes as per the recent USGS and Japan research
The inter…
"TULSA, Okla. (AP) — Oklahoma's former lead seismologist says he felt pressured by a University of Oklahoma official to not link the state's surge in earthquakes to oil and gas production."
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/artic…
Getting to the point of working with minimally filtered ENSO data, as the model is able to fit to minor excursions
Sloshing induced by the predictable long-period lunar tides and seasonal impulses.
http://ContextEarth.com
I agree with the difficulty of predicting a single earthquake. But for an ensemble, the triggering point must be Boltzmann or Arrhenius-like with an associated activation energy.
If a swept lunisolar forcing provides the extra delta in energy to …
Couple of recent posts where the harmonic series approximation for the ENSO forcing is reduced to a closed-form expression:
http://contextearth.com/2017/10/27/reverse-engineering-the-moons-orbit-from-enso-behavior/
http://contextearth.com/2017/11/…
This is probably the best preliminary paper on the topic
ELASTIC WAVE EQUATION, Yves Colin de Verdière,
Séminaire de théorie spectrale et géométrie, Grenoble Volume25 (2006-2007) 55-69
http://tsg.cedram.org/cedram-bin/article/TSG_2006-2007__25__55…
Jan, Perhaps I can try that.
Is the QBO a Berry monopole?
Or is it related to a Weyl point across a Lifshitz transitiion? https://inspirehep.net/record/1441222/plots
Yes, John will be interested in this stuff because it looks like the anti-vor…
Thanks Jan, that's looks a lot like what I solved for last year -- reducing the Coriolis forces at the equator.
http://contextEarth.com/2016/09/23/compact-qbo-derviation/
I simplified much more than what they did.
After spending all that time with the ENSO model, this is the progress after a day of working the Atlantic version of ENSO, the AMO
http://contextearth.com/2017/10/03/amo/
Jim, If you use it, let me know how it works. I am also going for minimizing the barrier to usage.
Latest validation here http://contextearth.com/2017/09/27/enso-tidal-forcing-validated-by-lod-data/
Jim asked:
"Btw what solver did you use?"
I used the builtin Excel Solver.
There is also an open Solver that I have yet to try: http://opensolver.org/
For awhile, I was using a Mathematica solver but it doesn't allow a correlation coefficien…
The above analysis was done with 6 constituent tidal parameters.
I have a home grown spreadsheet that uses a solver plugin that can fit to these tidal patterns.
This is one I did on the same waveform (after digitizing the plot) with 4 major tidal …
And this is a good survey paper on tsunami detection and how it relates to tidal prediction.
S. Consoli, D. R. Recupero, and V. Zavarella, “A survey on tidal analysis and forecasting methods for Tsunami detection,” J. Tsunami Soc. Int.
33 (1), 1–5…
A thought provoking question to get this thread back to ENSO -- Is ENSO just a continuous tidal wave or tsunami operating on the thermocline, with the lunisolar gravitational forcing providing the stimulus?
Sounds good. I thought I would link to this video of ENSO-like sloshing induced by the Mexico earthquake
These are slight variations in the earth's angular velocity that are causing this. Conservation of momentum principle in action.
Thought to comment on what a long strange trip it's been. The journey to modeling ENSO and QBO has been circuitous and then essentially doubled back to the most basic kind of forcing and the simplest toy differential equations.
The ENSO behavior is…
Some very recent research
http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/08/30/moons-tidal-stress-likely-responsible-causing-deep-moonquakes-new-study-confirms/
Deep moonquakes every ~27 days, the lunar tidal month
https://phys.org/news/2017-08-moon-tidal-st…
Jim, What's great about the moon is that they can see all the fissures and faultlines right on the surface, and back through the ages. These form distinct patterns in longitude and lattitude that align with the orbital path.
https://en.m.wikipedia.…
When it comes down to it, some of this stuff may have life or death implications. Who knows?
As far as teleconnections are concerned, this is an ultimate teleconnection model. The science has been concentrating so much on teleconnections on earth, …
"Do you think there might be some mileage in Kolvanker's lunisolar model for practical prediction purposes?"
I thought about that. It's still statistical, but if school children plan recesses around windows of time corresponding to lunisolar ph…
As with ENSO, the link between lunar cycles and earthquake activity is becoming increasingly apparent:
http://contextearth.com/2017/08/24/lunisolar-forcing-of-earthquakes/
tweet
Because lunar & solar cycles so accurately known, we can predict #SolarEclipse2017 precisely. Same for #ENSO
#ElNino
https://t.co/M8xJ3DwOso— Paul Pukite (@WHUT) August 13, 2017
http://contextearth.com/2017/08/14/solar-eclipse-2017-…
My last comment:
"The supposedly simplest "toy" models of ENSO that we describe on the Azimuth Project wiki page here http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/ENSO are the ones that remarkably work the best to describe the actual dynamics. If …
The supposedly simplest "toy" models of ENSO that we describe on the Azimuth Project wiki page here http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/ENSO are the ones that remarkably work the best to describe the actual dynamics. If the delayed action os…
This is the physics of the tidal forcing -- imparting a 1 millisecond slowdown (or speedup) on the rotation of the earth with a surface velocity of almost 500 meters/second over the course of a couple of weeks (a fortnight) will result in an inertia…
This is a magnification of the fitting contour around the best forcing period values for ENSO. These pair of peak values are each found to be less than a minute apart from the known values of the Draconic cycle (27.2122 days) and Anomalistic cycle (…