One of the tricky parts of dealing with an uncommon mathematical formulation is in finding appropriate analysis techniques. The Laplace's Tidal Equation solution is essentially a "sine of sine" formulation, which is rare to come across. Yet it is q…
The inability of forecasters to track hurricanes accurately is fundamentally related to the inability to model tropical behavior such as ENSO
https://theusposts.com/hurricane-tracker-what-causes-deadly-hurricanes-what-is-el-nino/
Professor Phil…
Terry Tao proposes ideas for solving Navier-Stokes. May have to set up a new discussion thread for this -- will edit this if it goes anywhere.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/terence-tao-proposes-fluid-new-path-in-navier-stokes-problem-20140224/
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"Prominent precession‐band variance in ENSO intensity over the last 300,000 years"
"The simulated ENSO and AC amplitudes change in‐phase, and both have pronounced precession‐band variance (~21,000 years). The precession‐modulated slow (orbital t…
Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California
"Foreshocks have been documented as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretic…
There was a paper titled "Numerical Bifurcation Methods applied to Climate Models: Analysis beyond Simulation" which was open review
I asked a question based on an excerpt in the paper:
"All of the results of continuation methods described abov…
Jan, Saw your comment attached to the Antarctic Ice sheet melting post over at RC and responded, waiting for it to come out of moderation.
I summarized the findings of common-mode forcing here: https://geoenergymath.com/2019/08/12/ao-pna-and-sam-…
The bizarreness of the solution can perhaps be rationalized when considered in the context of solving equations derived from the full Navier-Stokes. If Navier-Stokes was straightforward, the solution would likely be a familiar formulation, but since…
Research studying earthquake precursors via analyzing fore-shocks
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/08/earthquakes-groundbreaking-catalog-solved-seismic-mystery-foreshocks-southern-california/
This is the important part for analysis
…
What's interesting about the common tidal forcing of (AO, NAO, PNA, SAM) is that there is a distinct visible period in the time-series which is the lunar tropical month (27.321582 days) aliased against the annual signal.
1/(365.242/(27.321582)-1…
Jim, Appreciate the interest as always.
I'm trying to relate the LTE modulation factor to something akin to a Reynolds number (Re) or a Richardson number (Ri), which makes it a single scalar that describes the breaking or folding of the waves (like…
The SAM index (data source) is the last to do on the map
Based of the complexity of these waveforms, this should have taken a long time to adequately fit a model if starting from scratch. Yet, since the tidal forcing is nearly identical for each,…
What's also interesting is that the PNA (Pacific-North America) and now AO (Arctic Oscillation) can be easily fit from a perturbation of the NAO model. These are all northern latitude behaviors as highlighted in orange below.
This is the common t…
Jim asked:
"I wonder if the 3-4x frequency modulation of the IOD relative to ENSO might be related to some sort of "shudder" due to the various chokepoints around the straights of Malacca which iirc were adduced as contributing the slowdown of t…
Thanks, I'm next working on the PNA, which is a Pacific North America oscillation which stretches across the continent
The results are looking good but the tidal equation (LTE) modulation is extremely large
One index that I haven't looked at is the Indian Ocean Dipole and its gradient measure the Dipole Mode Index. This is important because it is correlated with India subcontinent monsoons. It also shows a correlation to ENSO, which is quite apparent …
Interesting paper in the sense of I don't understand what a permanent El Nino even means. Since ENSO is conceptually a dipole and always reverts to a mean value of zero, how can it ever balance out to being predominately El Nino over La Nina?
Unles…
It's the two-layers-of-complexity category. Impossible to figure out unless one layer reveals itself.
Longer post here: https://geoenergymath.com/2019/08/04/north-atlantic-oscillation/
I'm working a model of one of the fastest ocean oscillations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO can show up to 2 strong cycles per year in comparison to ENSO, which has El Nino peaks every 2 to 7 years
It appears that the model for NAO …
Likely impossible to create a model for predicting magnitude 9 earthquakes -- because they are so rare. But predicting magnitude 6 via models may be a more likely way to make progress, see YouTube
Using the same approach on the other major climate index, the PDO, a pattern is starting to emerge. The PDO has a significant LTE sin() modulation that is the same as ENSO, but also has a strong factor with a wavenumber that is 5 times as rapid. I…
Finding this common-mode forcing between ENSO and AMO is either the correct scientific interpretation or the most unlikely rabbit hole to fall into. There is always a concern with regards to over-fitting. The ENSO fit could be fortuitous, based on …
A recent climate science review paper covers "Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences", Runge et al 2019, Nature Communications
Unfortunately they do not describe common-mode factor causation. I took one of their figures and…
This opinion piece by Hossenfelder in the NYT makes the claim that "Only Supercomputers Can Do the Math" of modeling the global climate:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/opinion/climate-change-supercomputers.html
I recall that Hossenfelder wrote…
Interesting data from this paper on the equatorial-only Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) of the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere wind pattern.
[1] T. Hirooka, T. Ohata, and N. Eguchi, “Modulation of the Semiannual Oscillation Induced by Sudden…
Jim said:
"Re your 2005 observation: NPL accepted the original paper so an update to their model must fit their T&C scope. If not, I bet the authors would want to know."
The scientific discussion is fascinating as is -- I have my model pub…
Lots of the fluid dynamics is done through OpenFOAM and VisualCFD
https://www.openfoam.com/products/visualcfd.php
As for solid geometry simulations, I would also consider something like PTC Creo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PTC_Creo_Elements/Pro…
Jim, thanks. I burned my bridges at PRL when I tried submitting something earlier. Wish I could find the response, but it was something to the effect that PRL is mainly looking for models that improve the fundamental understanding of physics and t…
It's newsworthy when a climate science paper appears in the prestigious Physical Review Letters. This paper concerns the anomaly observed in the QBO in 2016
Synopsis:A Missing Beat in Earth’s Oscillating Wind Patterns
https://physics.aps.or…