Giant earthquakes: not as random as thought
https://phys.org/news/2018-01-giant-earthquakes-random-thought.html
Larger earthquakes recur more periodically: New insights in the megathrust earthquake cycle from lacustrine turbidite reco…
A paper from USGS denies connection of large earthquakes to lunisolar forcing:
https://phys.org/news/2018-01-great-earthquakes-affected-moon-phases.html
What Hough doesn't acknowledge is the triggering effect. When an earthquake is triggered, it ma…
This is the last of the ENSO charts.
This is how conventional tidal prediction is done:
This is an ENSO model fit to SOI data. Same tidal analysis algorithm is used but applying the annual solar cycle and monthly/fortnightly lunar cycles instea…
Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing
A. Tuel, P. Naveau, C. M. Ammann
"Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now ca…
In the last month, two of the great citizen scientists that I will be forever personally grateful for have passed away. If anyone has followed climate science discussions on blogs and social media, you probably have seen their contributions.
Keith…
Paper from 2016
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303460211_Tides_as_triggers_of_earthquakes_in_Hindu_Kush_Verification_of_tidal_movement_of_plates
What's interesting is that a critical review is added:
Without statistical testing, claim…
A rare paper on machine learning for El Nino
Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Nino, Peter Nooteboom
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/353201/Thesis_Peter_Nooteboom.pdf
Nothing truly impressive, the paper is r…
At this week's AGU meeting, at least one of the seismologists was aware of the tidal/earthquake connection and this is a paper that she told me to look into: “Abnormally Strong Daily-Cycle S1 Strain Tide: Observation and Physical Mechanism” — http:/…
http://arxiv.org/abs/1711.09898
Initiation of Plate Tectonics on Exoplanets with Significant Tidal Stress
J. J. Zanazzi, Amaury Triaud
(Submitted on 27 Nov 2017)
Plate tectonics is a geophysical process currently unique to Earth, has an…
Here is a plot from Chao from that same paper showing the contribution of LOD from various spectral sources. These are all defined by a characteristic frequency:
Going from right to left
Semi-diurnal tides --> Tidal forcing
Diurnal tides --…
The long-term LOD seems to be the big mystery, and it also aligns to temperature variations.
Dickey, J.O.; Marcus, S.L.; de Viron, O. Air temperature and anthropogenic forcing: Insights from the solid Earth. J. Clim. 2011, 24, 569–574. http://jour…
I disagree. The longer term LOD variation was removed in in the inset, thus reducing the fluctuation extremes from 2 to 1.
This is the paper by Chao cited in the figure:
http://ivs.nict.go.jp/mirror/publications/gm2004/chao/
Here is another from Ch…
Interesting study. There are several timescales involved in LOD changes.
The shortest time-scale is directly related to diurnal and semidiurnal lunisolar tides. This one also impacts earthquakes as per the recent USGS and Japan research
The inter…
"TULSA, Okla. (AP) — Oklahoma's former lead seismologist says he felt pressured by a University of Oklahoma official to not link the state's surge in earthquakes to oil and gas production."
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/artic…
Getting to the point of working with minimally filtered ENSO data, as the model is able to fit to minor excursions
Sloshing induced by the predictable long-period lunar tides and seasonal impulses.
http://ContextEarth.com
I agree with the difficulty of predicting a single earthquake. But for an ensemble, the triggering point must be Boltzmann or Arrhenius-like with an associated activation energy.
If a swept lunisolar forcing provides the extra delta in energy to …
Couple of recent posts where the harmonic series approximation for the ENSO forcing is reduced to a closed-form expression:
http://contextearth.com/2017/10/27/reverse-engineering-the-moons-orbit-from-enso-behavior/
http://contextearth.com/2017/11/…
This is probably the best preliminary paper on the topic
ELASTIC WAVE EQUATION, Yves Colin de Verdière,
Séminaire de théorie spectrale et géométrie, Grenoble Volume25 (2006-2007) 55-69
http://tsg.cedram.org/cedram-bin/article/TSG_2006-2007__25__55…
Jan, Perhaps I can try that.
Is the QBO a Berry monopole?
Or is it related to a Weyl point across a Lifshitz transitiion? https://inspirehep.net/record/1441222/plots
Yes, John will be interested in this stuff because it looks like the anti-vor…
Thanks Jan, that's looks a lot like what I solved for last year -- reducing the Coriolis forces at the equator.
http://contextEarth.com/2016/09/23/compact-qbo-derviation/
I simplified much more than what they did.
After spending all that time with the ENSO model, this is the progress after a day of working the Atlantic version of ENSO, the AMO
http://contextearth.com/2017/10/03/amo/
Jim, If you use it, let me know how it works. I am also going for minimizing the barrier to usage.
Latest validation here http://contextearth.com/2017/09/27/enso-tidal-forcing-validated-by-lod-data/
Jim asked:
"Btw what solver did you use?"
I used the builtin Excel Solver.
There is also an open Solver that I have yet to try: http://opensolver.org/
For awhile, I was using a Mathematica solver but it doesn't allow a correlation coefficien…
The above analysis was done with 6 constituent tidal parameters.
I have a home grown spreadsheet that uses a solver plugin that can fit to these tidal patterns.
This is one I did on the same waveform (after digitizing the plot) with 4 major tidal …
And this is a good survey paper on tsunami detection and how it relates to tidal prediction.
S. Consoli, D. R. Recupero, and V. Zavarella, “A survey on tidal analysis and forecasting methods for Tsunami detection,” J. Tsunami Soc. Int.
33 (1), 1–5…
A thought provoking question to get this thread back to ENSO -- Is ENSO just a continuous tidal wave or tsunami operating on the thermocline, with the lunisolar gravitational forcing providing the stimulus?