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WebHubTel

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WebHubTel
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  • Bezos to spend $10,000,000,000 to stop climate change https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/02/jeff-bezos-pledges-10-billion-to-stop-climate-change/
  • In a recent discussion called "feedbacks, runaway, and tipping points" I linked to a concise derivation of how climate set-points are reached based on what we published last year. This is a fun derivation for anyone interested in reducing well-know…
  • One of the maddening aspects of climatology as a science is in the cavalier treatment of data and in particular the potential loss of information through filtering. A group of scientists at NASA JPL (Perigaud et al) have pointed out how reckless it …
  • The ENSO forcing without the annual impulse can be used as the basis for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing. As in the prior comment, the 9-year repeat can be discerned by eye. The big distinction is that (like the QBO), the NAO model r…
  • Interesting that the paper cited in #20 has been retracted by Oxford Academic publishers This retraction was discovered via my Zoteria citation database, "Control of plant leaf movements by the lunisolar tidal force" Even though it's apparently …
  • The two projects I mentioned in #18 reside in my paid-for-subscription GitHub repository at the moment. FYI, my semantic web project is written in Prolog, which is the #1 programming language in the world. And my Petri net framework is written in A…
  • I have two software framework projects completed and version controlled on GitHub. One is a declarative framework for the semantic web that I am using for earth science models and the other is a component infrastructure for Petri net models which w…
  • Jim, I think I have privileges to access the Azimuth GitHub as it is. Recently I received this in my email A new security advisory was published We found a vulnerable dependency in repositories you have security alert access to. Security ad…
  • The strong requirement that an annual impulse interacts with the tidal forcing suggests that the 18-year Saros cycle of eclipse occurrences is operable for ENSO modeling, as it is a longitudinally regional (i.e. Pacific ocean) cycle. In contrast, …
  • The current Michael Mann paper is out in Nature and is entitled “Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations”. This is under some scrutiny because Mann's apparent claim is that the longer cycles of A…
  • "That sounds intriguing - the 1980s would have been quite an amazing time to have been working in that industry, when personal computers were just - or yet - to become a common consumer item, and the internet-to-be was still just ARPANET." Inte…
  • Thanks, that will take a while to digest. If it's some type of fingerprint extraction from the data, that sounds like an advance. The fingerprint of AGW as causing the recent Australia heat is tricky because there are several climate dipole modes t…
  • I believe this kind of ML only uses past information from the time-series. Thus, it can only find natural amplitude/phase responses or resonances that are internal but not identify any external forcing sources. If an ML algorithm could use this info…
  • The SOI is essentially measuring the dipole extent of Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) atmospheric pressure. If these two are perfect anti-nodes, then the correlation coefficient (CC) between the two should be -1. For unfiltered monthly data, the CC is a…
  • This study correlates the 6.4 year envelope of Chandler Wobble with magma eruptions on Mt. Etna https://phys.org/news/2019-12-earth-earthquakes-volcanic-eruptions-mount.html Lambert, S. & Sottili, G. Is there an influence of the pole tide on v…
  • Chris Goddard said: "The discovery that this sort of thing might be possible seems to be due to one or two others, but the bulk of the work in terms of fleshing out the promise of same seems to have been done by this fellow and his collaborators…
  • Jan, I don't know how much is required to get at the primary spectral components. This paper applies the technique to the same kind of geophysical time-series data https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318821331_Tidal_Analysis_Using_Time-Freque…
  • I was always wondering how to do a Fourier series on the LTE modulation without having to do a numerical sort on the ordinal. Well, I should have realized that it's not necessary as long as the input series is discrete. Here is the Fourier amplitude…
  • Thanks. I wasn't aware of the direct evidence for payola -- it's unfortunate that sincere commenting gets associated with this. The review paper on tide variation will be useful over the millennial timeframe I would imagine.
  • It's looking like this is one of the only remaining forums that allows free-flowing discussion of climate science. Jan, the ATTP blog is fading fast -- on Alexa it's rank is 5,622,000, down around 4,000,000 since a few months ago. The majority of m…
  • Some deep-learning algorithm out there will find the ENSO pattern eventually, but perhaps not anytime soon. This is how bad a neural network does on natural variability as reported at last week's AGU meeting It's so bad that they punt and admit be…
  • Thanks Jan. Way back early in the El Nino Azimuth Project discussion, Dara O'Shayda was doing studies using the random forest approach, for example in this discussion thread https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/13797/ It looks like…
  • I have been using the delta length-of-day (dLOD) measurements to calibrate the forcing for the ENSO model. The change in LOD is almost entirely due to tidal forcing, in so far as every LOD cycle corresponds to a well-understood lunar cycle. The dLO…
  • I got into a twitter discussion with this denier. If we can warn Prof. Wunsch not to waste too much time on him :) I have respect for Prof. Wunsch/late Prof. Walter Munk. In fact I’ve corresponded recently with Prof. Wunsch on a technical issue. Do…
  • Jan, Cool. I have read many of Carl Wunsch's articles because he's an expert on ocean circulation and one of the few that believes lunar tidal forces may have a strong impact on climate via changes in that circulation. This is a Nature article of hi…
  • Although he's in a spell now where he is remaining close to home, my son, Jeff, professor at UCL went to China, Australia, Argentina, Chicago, California, and France (and a couple of other places I forget) in the last couple of years. Very impr…
  • Jan, The frustrating part of attending the AGU and having discussions with presenters is that they don't seem to appreciate that the focus should be on the behavioral regions with the lowest dimensionality and the fewest degrees of freedom. I wouldn…
  • So at this same blog, the blogger writes about stocks and flows in his top-level post. This is a straightforward directed graph with flow between the states as those who frequent the Azimuth Project forum will find familiar https://andthentheresphy…
  • Jan, Concerning eddies (vortices), I think the fundamental aspect worth modeling is the behavior known as Tropical Instability Waves. These always form along the equator with a fixed wavelength of 1100 kilometers. That makes it a vortex train. This…