Since ENSO is the result of a standing wave dipole and that the SOI measure takes the difference between two SW extremes, then we should see something like \( G(t) = C_1 sin(AF(t)+B_1) + C_2 sin(-AF(t)+B_2) \) as the best fit. And that's exactly …
In red is the input forcing \( F(t) \) which is an annual impulse-driven tidal signal. After each impulse, the signal is integrated into the previous value, thus creating an up-and-down stair-step appearing time series. This approach works well to…
Came across a self-published book "The Deep Pull: A Major Advance in the Science of Tides" by Walter Hayduk, a retired chemical engineer. His claim is that the moon and the sun have major influences on ocean dynamics, and in a way that is outside …
10 Things: What We Learn About Earth by Studying the Moon
By Isabelle Yan, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
"Earth’s magnetic field is our shield, constantly protecting us from harmful solar wind or cosmic ray particles. This importa…
"@WebHubTel, Publish it? If not in a geophysics journal, why not try IOP or a statistics journal like JTSA or even Computational and Graphical Statistics? Or at least put it out there in arXiv?"
Jan, All this is published in the Mathematical Ge…
Here's a very convincing data analysis that shows that ENSO (and El Nino) is far from being chaotic. I ran an auto-correlation of the the Fourier series of an ENSO time-series and found a strongly correlated one-year shift from all spectral compone…
Cool. Besides Efron's Bootstrapping, I am reminded of Simulated Annealing which was popularized by Kirkpatrick but was known from physics.
Interesting that the solution to Navier-Stokes that I apply to these models have a non-linear and nearly cha…
Also from NY Times
"Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, Calif., has a habit of asking new graduate students to name the largest fundamental breakthrough in climate physics since 1979. It’s a tri…
From the NY Times
"Dr. Broecker could be combative and even curmudgeonly, recalled Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University. “He was quite opinionated and often fought hard to make his scientific interpretations the …
Here is an animated view of how the ENSO model is trained.
The general idea is that Laplace's tidal equation solution evolves with wavenumber applied. The initial forcing is from the lunar tidal pattern modulated by an annual impulse. The wavenumbe…
Even the originator of chaotic contributions to climate and the Butterfly Effect, Edward Lorenz, had concerns about claiming all aspects of climate were chaotic. This included of course tides :
but also QBO & ENSO (El Nino) :
A rec…
Jan,
Thanks, but I steer clear of any chaotic formulations. I think it's a no-win situation -- once a behavior is deemed chaotic (or turbulent), there's not much you can do about it (especially in terms of predictability)
That's why I am concentra…
Outside of this forum, there seems to be a rote allegiance to the belief that these standing-wave climate behaviors are due to chaos. Apparently no one wants to get involved in the analysis because they have been told that chaos leads to the butter…
This is matching the NAO model on 3 different training intervals. The lunisolar tidal forcing is essentially the same across each. What does change slightly is the high-K wavenumber coefficient (and its amplitude scaling) that is used to sharpen the…
From Pierre's link:
The distinction between a teleconnection and a common-mode forcing is important. Why would a behavior in one ocean basin remotely impact a behavior in a geographically separated one? I know it's possible to create a mathemati…
Jan, There may be something to that. I split up the NAO time series into 3 separate 23 year intervals and found that the same lunar forcing works for each, but that the standing wave indices differ for each interval. This may be the variability in t…
The differences between ENSO and NAO are stark. ENSO has stronger cycles from 2 to 7 years, while NAO can show fluctuations at 2 or more per year. Yet, essentially the same forcing (as shown in the cross-correlation plots along the lower pane abov…
The presentation included an analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is a more rapid dipole.
What I am working on right now appears more promising, as can now sustain a correlation over a wider range
We presented models for ENSO (i.e. the El Nino behavior), QBO, and a few other climate indices at the American Geophysical Union meeting last month in DC and the presentation PDF is now available from the ESSOAR archive here:
https://www.essoar.org…
What's intriguing about the equatorial behaviors of ENSO and QBO is that they should be driven by congruent forcing factors. ENSO is much more complex so it has a few factors to choose from, but the QBO is driven primarily by the Draconic cycle (wi…
Pierre, It looks as if the quasi-static approximation has a different meaning in fluid dynamics vs electromagnetism. What I want to explore is how a standing wave such as ENSO can be related to a travelling wave such as TIW. The analytic solution i…
Jan said:
The Pacific is an unusual system: It's the only place (presently) on the planet where you have a big stretch of ocean where the Coriolis force is essentially zero, along the Equator.
Agree. What I want to do next is perturb the equa…
The TIW may be there for El Nino, it is just more obvious with La Nina.
I talked to one presenter at AGU about the sharpness of the front
Over a short lateral distance the vortex front shows a sharp change in temperature. The vortices are large i…
The general connection is that the Tropical Instability Waves appear stronger during La Nina phases.
Precisely along the equator there is no preferred vortex behavior as Coriolis cancels, which forms the premise for an ENSO standing wave solution. …
I think the behavior known as Tropical Instability Waves is the hot topic right now. Massive vortices with sharply delineated edges created along the equator and aligned with phases of ENSO.
re "... Topology ? Is it an ultimate framework layer to you? And how important/useful could it be regarding studying Earth system ?"
Condensed matter physicists are making great progress in climate science via topological modeling:
Delplace, M…
Thanks Jan,
As Brad Marston says, the key to modeling toroids (vortex rings), such as QBO, is to assume two equators. The one equator is the physical equator of the earth, while the other equator is the characteristic internal twisting of the vor…