The general connection is that the Tropical Instability Waves appear stronger during La Nina phases.
Precisely along the equator there is no preferred vortex behavior as Coriolis cancels, which forms the premise for an ENSO standing wave solution. …
I think the behavior known as Tropical Instability Waves is the hot topic right now. Massive vortices with sharply delineated edges created along the equator and aligned with phases of ENSO.
re "... Topology ? Is it an ultimate framework layer to you? And how important/useful could it be regarding studying Earth system ?"
Condensed matter physicists are making great progress in climate science via topological modeling:
Delplace, M…
Thanks Jan,
As Brad Marston says, the key to modeling toroids (vortex rings), such as QBO, is to assume two equators. The one equator is the physical equator of the earth, while the other equator is the characteristic internal twisting of the vor…
I think machine learning will help explain some surprising features in the future.
Also some of the condensed matter ideas will filter in:
Mathematicians Tame Turbulence in Flattened Fluids | Quanta Magazine
https://t.co/ZyyQRqCiI1
The book Mathematical Geoenergy is out and available on the Wiley/AGU site and other online sellers such as Amazon.
Everything you wanted to know about fossil fuels, renewable energy, and climate science treated in simple mathematical terms is pres…
Jan, If it adds a significant delta angular momentum push, it would probably be detectable. Krakatoa was the formation of an island in a narrow strait which would impact the oceanic flow east-to-west and west-to-east
Discussed this aspect here: ht…
Fitting the model simultaneously to the historical monthly data (top panel) and high-resolution daily data (middle panel) using the high-frequency spectrum correlation (bottom panel) to weight the high-K parameters.
An applied application of a reduced form of Navier-Stokes is referred to in the long-running ENSO/QBO discussion thread.
https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/1471/qbo-and-enso#latest
There is SOI data on a daily time scale since 1992 on this site https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt
I had been using monthly data and it wasn't clear whether the…
There is a neat technique that can validate a certain class of nonlinear models called frequency-domain cross-validation (FDCV)
"In the frequency domain cross validation is easily performed by dividing the frequency measurements in two disjoint …
Many of the recent advances in fundamental climate science have been made by researchers with a condensed matter physics background.
Brad Marston of Brown U and colleagues are making progress with their topologically-constrained climate models. Ma…
The basis of the ENSO model is the forcing derived from the long-period cyclic lunisolar gravitational pull of the moon and sun. There is some thought that ENSO shows teleconnections to other oceanic behaviors. The primary oceanic dipoles are ENSO…
The key to analytically solving Laplace's tidal equations (Navier-Stokes) along the equator is to use the ansatz of a non-fixed equator. Solved here
This is the rationale:
from "A Chorus of the Winds—On Saturn!" P. L. Read
https://agupubs.onlineli…
The solution to Laplace's Tidal Equation along the equator is
$$ I(t) = \Sigma^n_{i=0} A_i \sin (k_i f(t) + \theta_i) $$
where f(t) is the equatorial gravitational forcing, and the index terms are the separated standing wave components.
Since f(…
How about this one concerning the definition of functor -- in Prolog, everything is defined as a structure or term of the form: functor(arg1, arg2, ..).
Functors are thus the Prolog building blocks to declaratively relate or map different categori…
Another article with good evidence of a lunar quake connection
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013794418300687#!
Acoustic, electromagnetic, and neutron emissions as seismic precursors: The lunar periodicity of low-magnitude seis…
https://twitter.com/NCLRichard/status/1001466547565670400
T'day, 12 years since Lusi started to erupt in Indonesia. 40,000 people lost homes. But Elsevier also publish shockingly imbalanced Special Issue on this
https://www.sciencedirect.com/j…
A Nature sponsored article written by a scientist at the National Institute of Mental Health
"Bipolar mood cycles and lunar tidal cycles" https://www.nature.com/articles/mp2016263
Other recent articles on tidal forcings applied to plant growth…
The following analysis is an excellent substantiation of the ENSO model
http://contextearth.com/2018/05/08/unified-enso-proxy/
The fit does a back-extrapolation over a 230 year interval prior to 1880 using coral proxy records with a resolution of 1…
Yes. Yet as far as I can tell there is no real consensus for ENSO. The split is between stochastic models and chaotic models and both can only give a statistical agreement. The non-chaotic deterministic model is the odd-man out because no one is l…
I hope the final paper gets published in GRL at least.
Jim, Right now the research is going through peer-review and the outcome is still pending as I recently responded to the critical review.
I don't want to copy&paste the written critici…
A full model fit to shortest component 0.4y.
The residual of the fit across the entire spectrum (Nyquist T = 1/6 y) appears to be flat white noise
No use trying to improve the fit beyond this point --
"Bott…
An example of verification in pattern recognition and signal processing
http://contextearth.com/2018/04/29/enso-model-verification-via-fourier-analysis-infill/
The underlying issue is how does one confirm a hypothetical scientific model without ha…
Slightly different approach that I should have tried long ago for the ENSO model. Instead of training on the time-series, train on the complex Fourier series in frequency space.
So, this is trained on intervals of the ENSO SOI spectrum (in yellow),…