As with ENSO, the link between lunar cycles and earthquake activity is becoming increasingly apparent:
http://contextearth.com/2017/08/24/lunisolar-forcing-of-earthquakes/
tweet
Because lunar & solar cycles so accurately known, we can predict #SolarEclipse2017 precisely. Same for #ENSO
#ElNino
https://t.co/M8xJ3DwOso— Paul Pukite (@WHUT) August 13, 2017
http://contextearth.com/2017/08/14/solar-eclipse-2017-…
My last comment:
"The supposedly simplest "toy" models of ENSO that we describe on the Azimuth Project wiki page here http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/ENSO are the ones that remarkably work the best to describe the actual dynamics. If …
The supposedly simplest "toy" models of ENSO that we describe on the Azimuth Project wiki page here http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/ENSO are the ones that remarkably work the best to describe the actual dynamics. If the delayed action os…
This is the physics of the tidal forcing -- imparting a 1 millisecond slowdown (or speedup) on the rotation of the earth with a surface velocity of almost 500 meters/second over the course of a couple of weeks (a fortnight) will result in an inertia…
This is a magnification of the fitting contour around the best forcing period values for ENSO. These pair of peak values are each found to be less than a minute apart from the known values of the Draconic cycle (27.2122 days) and Anomalistic cycle (…
Difficult to believe that behaviors such as ENSO and QBO are not related to external forcing. I can't think of one large scale cyclic behavior that can't be pinned to some other regular cycle. Even the cycles of sunspots are known to be intimately t…
ENSO forcing match against digitized LOD variation
I took the correlation coefficient of this and its above 0.7. For the cycle factors applied, the fit doesn't get much better if the phases and amplitude are allowed to vary -- the correlation coef…
Couple more blog posts that demonstrate how well the ENSO model works in describing the observations and the geophysics ...
The first is evidence as to how such a simple model can produce such a rich Fourier spectra, contrary to people's preconceiv…
Trump pulled US out of the Paris Accord :(
If we actually had better knowledge of climate behavior and more emphasis on how AGW interacts with Peak Oil, we would likely have a different discourse.
Just by having a real understanding of ENSO, we co…
Couple of more blog posts on nailing down the mechanism for ENSO:
(1) This one contextualizes the ENSO behavior in terms of a common forcing governing ENSO, QBO, and the Chandler wobble
http://contextearth.com/2017/05/21/the-lunar-geophysical-…
This is a straightforward validation of the ENSO model presented at last December's AGU.
What I did was use the modern instrumental record of ENSO — the NINO34 data set — as a training interval, and then tested across the historical coral proxy rec…
The ENSO model is essentially two known (monthly) tidal parameters and one (annual) solar parameter provided as a RHS forcing to a primitive differential equation with LHS parameters that are roughly estimated.
Once these 5 LHS parameters are estim…
That first paper by Canedo is context-modeling, which is something we worked on via a DARPA project a few years ago
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283579370_C2M2L_Final_Report
Basically covering the same territory and I recognize all the…
Incredibly, the ENSO model is able to detect the Draconic and Anomalistic lunar month values to within ~30 seconds out of ~27 days.
http://contextEarth.com/2017/05/01/the-enso-model-turns-into-a-metrology-tool/
The huge lever arm of a 130+ year EN…
This is as good as any tidal analysis I have ever seen. Notice the perturbation right around 1980 is now gone. It turns out that may have been a red herring, as the past fitting routines were missing the secret ingredient.
This is a short summary …
Given the two fitting intervals, a low range from 1880 to 1950 and a high range 1950 to 2016, we can compare the resultant parameters.
The strongest lunar parameters are the D=Draconic and A=Anomalistic periods. The higher-order parameters $D^n$ …
On this Earth Day, I present the final touches on the ENSO model, which uses only the primary lunar cycles and the yearly period. The training goes from 1880 to 1950, and everything after that is projected:
More info here http://contextEarth.co…
Update to #141. Forcing with a 1st-order lag and an opposing feedback from one year prior. This serves to smooth the ENSO model fit (in contrast to the blocky one-year window integration) and to reinforce the biennial modulation in the lunar tidal …
Also added the QBO model to the spreadsheet. Essentially the same model fitting algorithm is used for both ENSO and QBO, but using a different set of forcing functions. For ENSO, the draconic and anomalistic tide is modulated with a biennial signal,…
In the last post, I added a link to a downloadable spreadsheet where one can play with the ENSO solver.
Interesting what it can do with very short training intervals. This is one from 1908 to 1920, a short training interval of only 12 years. You wo…
Previous comment I wrote:
"The ENSO fit then has only amplitude and phase unknowns with regard to the 3 lunar monthly cycles, making it conceptually identical to an ocean tidal model fit. "
Here is an example of the detail I can get with the E…
I will be finishing up the basic research on my ENSO model soon. I don't have many loose ends left and what I presented at the AGU is standing the test of time. The Chandler wobble is tied to the aliased draconic month cycle so I can essentially get…
Richard Lindzen, the "father" of QBO modeling, is at it again with his anti-AGW crusade. He recently sent in a petition to Trump asking to withdraw from the Paris agreement. But now his MIT colleagues are fighting back:
"Their letter, sent las…
In trying to isolate the Chandler wobble mechanism, Grumbine seems to agree that it has something to do with external forcing, but rules out lunar because books on the earth's rotation by Munk and Lambeck rules that mechanism out.
"Gravitationa…
Maximum combined torque on the axis occurs when the draconic month maximum declination aligns with a solstice. This happens at precisely the same frequency as the Chandler wobble. If this is not an additive stimulus and is simply a coincidence, I do…