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WebHubTel

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WebHubTel
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  • Since long-period tidal forcing is essentially a multiplicative expansion of 3 fundamental lunar cycles and the annual cycle, I set up a combinatorial expansion of the 3 sin waves synced to an annual impulse. The fit was a result of 126 binomiall…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel 1:49AM
  • Jan, Most of my opinions of programming languages are based on feel and trust, which means it's all subjective. I don't care for Mathematica in terms of its brittleness -- when I was using it regularly it would freeze my PC. When I looked at it clo…
  • The goal is to use other approaches to model a time-series as detailed as this:
  • Christopher Rackauckas is a bit of a pied piper with his Julia work. What appeals to me is that the DSL looks pretty slick for certain classes of problems. From https://sciml.ai/roadmap/ this model of a chemical reaction network, which is the way I…
  • Jan, It's also more of a MATLAB replacement
  • I will likely look into using the Julia scientific programming environment at some point. This is a very good marketing/educational video And there is an online Julia meeting going on right now https://live.juliacon.org/live Watching this right…
  • Good summary. The category of "Orbital Wobbles" will subsume the "Short-Term Climate Fluctuations" as we find out that all the short-term climate fluctuations are in fact due to short-term orbital wobbles caused by tidal forcing, i.e. the ENSO tidal…
  • My custom search optimizer already works faster than the Excel solver https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/22337/#Comment_22337 I'm thinking that since the last stage of the ENSO model is a sum of LTE modulations, that I can add a mu…
  • Scientists have had enough of Richard Lindzen, who came up with the consensus QBO explanation nearly 50 years ago. This is one of the latest from a twitter thread labelled "Dick L, who was not just wrong, but very very confident about it" by Prof An…
  • Jan, That's definitely a better comeback than I can make. Having to look up pedagogy to make sure I knew what it meant, Wikipedia gives the example of the Socratic Method as a teaching policy. That may better suit a scientific discipline where the…
  • Here is a rationale for continuing the research angle -- there is a contingent that believes that climate science is already well-understood and all that is important to do is communicate the consensus views: Concentrating on the communication th…
  • This seems important but I don't understand the algorithm -- the data must be buried in an extreme level of noise "Estimating temporal changes in seismic velocity using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach"
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel July 17
  • This is the annual impulse of ENSO. Finally it's been identified. "New Indices for Better Understanding ENSO by Incorporating Convection Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature" https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/16/7045/348273/New-Indi…
  • LOL, here is the latest on modeling the QBO at the 70 hPa layer-- this is actually an interesting mix of tidal factors, which also clearly shows the impect of Laplace's Tidal Equations modulation. Without the LTE modulation and only with the tidal f…
  • with a 1% spread in the extra frequencies The marketing behind the "atmosphere ringing" paper is absurd. You can't hear any of the ringing with your ears since as you can see the fundamental frequency has a period of one day. It's like someone cl…
  • This is the main application area Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) "The mEPN scheme: an intuitive and flexible graphical system for rendering biological pathways" https://bmcsystbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1752-0509-4-65 Overall architect…
  • This is the model spectrum for the "ringing atmosphere" It appears that the even/odd pattern in intensity might be due to a 1/2 day (semi-diurnal) modulation in the daily tide, and the double satellite side-bands are highly likely due to the 13.6…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 9
  • This part is confusing to me: "Some peaks represent astronomically forced tides, but we show that most peaks are manifestations of the ringing of randomly excited global-scale resonant modes, reminiscent of the tones in a spectrum of a vibrating…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 9
  • Jan, The thing that perplexes me about geophysical fluid dynamics is that they have special names for every type of wave -- Rossby, Kelvin, etc. When I learned about waves, a wave was a wave and was essentially described numerically, and perhaps di…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 9
  • Jan, It will be interesting if the Kerry Emanuel paper generates further discussion.
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 9
  • Re: The atmospheric ringing paper => The dispersion appears linear (wavenumber proportional to frequency) and Figure 7 shows lots of harmonics of the daily cycle. The following excerpt of their Fig 7 is exactly what the LTE model predicts. All t…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 9
  • Kerry Emanuel opinion piece on climate science, read this thread https://twitter.com/WHUT/status/1279434134876835841
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 4
  • Probably the most direct real-world example of the Laplace's Tidal Equation MZ-like modulation is described here https://geoenergymath.com/2020/06/29/the-sao-and-annual-disturbances/ The modulation is dependent on amplitude so that it will have a c…
    in QBO and ENSO Comment by WebHubTel July 1
  • Michael Mann again tweeted that he doesn't think that indices such as AMO and PDO are climate modes at all. https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1276630052273369093 Press release on this today : Atlantic and Pacific oscillations lost in the noi…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 26
  • I think that is the same analysis to predict the response of a heat-sink to a thermal impulse. Green function = impulse response function. Good to have that as a reference.
  • Interesting that Michael Mann, who coined the acronym AMO no longer considers the AMO a real oscillation. The new research on AMO by Mann appears to be meant to be somewhat provocative, which is OK as it spurred some discussion on Twitter. His peer…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 22
  • "Ocean tides have a power of about 300 gigawatts" Not even sure how to apply that number. Consider that the reduced gravity of the water at the thermocline may by orders of magnitude less than at the surface. Therefore to move cooler or hotter…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 22
  • David, I don't think even climate scientists understand any of this. The only geophysics-based science I put a lot of trust in comes from NASA JPL, because their job depends on getting these things right. For example, on the LOD (length-of-day) me…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 21
  • No, I don't think I have a way to clinch an argument, since science can't prove anything. All that is possible is to produce a better scientific model to explain what is happening than a competing model. This model then has to be socialized via othe…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 21
  • David said: "Paul, do you have a way of quantifying the contributions of tidal vs. greenhouse effects to global warming?" The tidal contribution balances to zero based on theory. There is an interesting direct correlation between the earth's leng…
    in Earthquakes Comment by WebHubTel June 21