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WebHubTel

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WebHubTel
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  • Pertaining to this Roundy article about applying EOF (empirical orthogonal functions) and PCA (principal component analysis) to ENSO and MJO, the figure below shows a set of two principle components that Roundy found. On the right is the phase rel…
  • Jan, That is so well put. Yes, all of that case-by-case domain expertise captured in a ML knowledgebase could be just the trick. The guru priesthood can then finally be codified.
  • From a recent extensive twitter thread started by a grad student in oceanography Is the math required all that advanced or is the issue that the constraints are not sufficiently bounded? If the math doesn't go anywhere, I can understand how stude…
  • Finally, noticing some discussion on applying dispersion of rates in the analysis of COVID-19 growth https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ "By now many people have heard about R0—the b…
  • An "extra" dimension helps to show what happens when the solution to Laplace's Tidal Equations along the equator develops greater modulation -- equivalent to wave breaking wrapping around a torus. The wave can curl in the left or right hand sense…
  • The best advice to give someone trying to work geophysical fluid dynamics models is not to get stuck over absolute quantitative estimates but instead work on the relative behavioral patterns. As an example, consider the path of understanding that co…
  • Jan, This is one that I have used https://github.com/pukpr/GeoEnergyMath/blob/master/nino34_soi.txt
  • Jan, Nothing extra because I usually compare the data against the model so the same weighting on both time-series would not add discriminating power Example: The Fourier amplitude spectrum comparison below may not reveal anything different if the …
  • Jan said: " there's a phenomenon where two basis vectors are needed to see the actual behavior and they act as a couplet." In wave dynamics, triads also appear prevalent as a collective behavior. This is explainable as a triad is required to …
  • Mostly unfiltered SOI ENSO time-series model. The high frequency cycling is likely not noise but high wavenumber standing-waves or traveling-waves that are solutions to LTE. The high-frequencies are filtered out with the averaged response of the …
  • In this article, Harry Crane argues that scientists may be gaming the research publication business to increase the likelihood of manuscript acceptance (I came across it from a recent Twitter thread of a couple days ago) https://researchers.one/ar…
  • human decision making, this year What computer science can teach economics “We have reasons to doubt any medical news that comes out of this White House.” —Brian Williams MSNBC
  • https://twitter.com/tim_dunkerton/status/1306003350777860096 Not sure what this QBO finding is but will keep track.
  • More likely, a conflation of events, with one rising to the top.
  • Climate scientist thinks reduced effective gravity is somehow weird Wow, that's really weird! https://t.co/nPaewwyIXq— Scott Denning (@airscottdenning) September 18, 2020
  • One target that they will meet is cessation of crude oil consumption. The world has reached peak oil "An Oil Giant’s Case for Peak Demand, Even Without Climate Heroics" - Bloomberg News "One of the biggest international oil companies has concl…
  • This twitter thread from Sabine Hossenfelder But look, tweeps, the reality is we live in a world of finite resources. We have to carefully decide how to invest those resources so that we can continue making new discoveries and learning about the un…
  • Look at this buoyancy experiment. Forcing an inverted immiscible oil layer to suspend by applying a vibration to an injected air layer underneath this layer. This vibration prevents a Rayleigh–Taylor instability (i.e. glob dripping) from collapsing …
  • "As a final test, we wanted to check if the proton density catalogue is completely uncorrelated. We know, as stated above, that the seismic catalogue of strong earthquakes is non-Poissonian and internally correlated, so we have analyzed the proto…
  • "The System Dynamics society is looking for volunteers! Our members have much to offer, and we want you to help us build the field and make the society valuable for its members. Volunteering can lead to leadership positions in the System Dynamics…
  • Solitons or cnoidal waves appear closely related to the LTE solution Shallow Water Waves and Solitary Waves In their periodic form, they appear sinusoidal but contain higher harmonics and can show folding or wave breaking. The transcendental funct…
  • I've followed Gell-Mann's work on complexity over the years and will now try my hand at using his approach to describe the simplicity of the models developed in this long thread. Each model fits the data applying a concise algorithm -- the key be…
  • Could u explain why no asymmetry please?— olympic (@aoyunxue0822) August 29, 2020 Climate variability simulation predictions don't work Fluid dynamics contains difficult math When the math does work, can't understand fully why phenomenological…
  • I try to deal with uncertainties by routinely going to the higher resolution time series such as the 5-day MJO and daily SOI data sets. So the fits become multi-scale and the uncertainties can potentially be narrowed down. High-resolution (5-day) M…
  • There's much structure in the ENSO model phase plots By multiplying the points by the strength of the annular impulse at that time, the phase-plots give away the source of the alignment Leading month pulse: Trailing month pulse: There's also a…
  • This person Jeffrey A Tucker that created the graph above is gaining a reputation of posting other misleading graphs https://twitter.com/CostaSamaras/status/1297014842604359680
  • Following from the previous comment, this is the phase-space (Lissajous) pattern of ENSO model amplitude vs. dAmplitude/dt. This only features the primary dipole LTE modulation of ~2.57, so it pushes the modulation "loop eyes" toward the center, as…
  • Watching a few of the Steven Strogatz lectures on Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos (at 1.75X speed) and he is recommending graphical representations to understand the patterns. The practical problem with phase-space plots : The first two are clearly …
  • Oxford's "government response tracker index" tracks the stringency of government responses to COVID-19 across countries and time -- with 0 being least stringent and 100 corresponding to maximum stringency. The trend should be that the numbers to th…
  • The first thing that caught my eye is that the chart has a negative y-axis, in spite of the fact that the units are in terms of deaths per population size -- which can never go negative. They did this to space the low death rates from the zero valu…