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WebHubTel

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  • "The predicted sensitivity is of a nature that a slight difference now in conditions can completely alter future quasi-periodicity inflection, the longer the time-frame, the more divergent. " Nope. Doesn't work that way. For example, all indica…
  • Not in the sense of the behavior under investigation.
  • "As a Chaotic System, ENSO is sensitive to initial conditions, therefore occasionally susceptible to Tidal Forcing. " Not chaotic implies the converse. None of the model behaviors (ENSO, QBO, or Chandler wobble) are dependent on initial conditi…
  • I'm getting a bit sick and tired of this stuff. Today I find that Trump gets acquitted of charges of insurrection, and my 2-page Ideas paper gets rejected from the Earth System Dynamics journal (yes, 2 pages is the page limit). The two are definit…
  • Someone said: "I avoid people who have a tendency to capitalize words that shouldn’t be." A look at the Ubiquitous Habit of capitalizing letters to make A Point (from Mashable) "One of King's least favorite Twitter users, Donald Trump, als…
  • No, it only means that they don't understand the pattern.
  • LOL, those predictions are for 6 only months in advance! Basically dead-reckoning forecasts
  • The lunisolar gravitational forces control the variation in the earth's rotation speed (dLOD) as a direct solid body inertial response. With the correct accounting of the tidal factor strengths it makes perfect sense assuming a linear transfer func…
  • I don't see your ENSO model results yet, just some links to weather and an orbiting satellite.
  • "The more I review the various sensor data sources, like sea-surface data, the more I see Lunisolar signals are mixed-in, in real-time." You talk as if you have done the data analysis. Where is it? It's not possible to hand-wave the agreement…
  • "You seem also to speak to the concern your model might not be predictive "by chance", yet still be physically correct." That's not what I said at all. I stated that even if my model made a correct prediction of the next El Nino, an informed s…
  • "There is a lot human life and assets riding on the best physics-based predictive models" Yes, many people, including farmers and others, have a lot riding on minimizing loss due to droughts, floods, and heat waves. I'm all for supporting rese…
  • "ENSO predictions will slowly improve, until predicting a few cycles ahead should be possible, but not much better" It's not about the predictions, but about the physics. No one makes any progress in science by throwing darts while blindfolded.…
  • It's called a topological insulator because the flow is restricted to a surface, boundary, or interface instead of the bulk. So in the sense of a topological insulator, equatorial waves are topological boundary states, similar to those emerging in …
  • Again, ENSO and QBO Equatorial Belt wave-guides are anything but perfect Topological Insulators. That's a contradiction. The flow properties of topological insulator are robust against imperfections so an imperfect structure (up to a point) wou…
  • Dave said: "I think Laplace greatly underestimated Coriolis in his Tidal Equations." I know you haven't read the entirety of this thread that has been running for over 5 years now, but Coriolis is included in Laplace's Tidal Equations, and it'…
  • that Coriolis Force is "constant" when its not It's constant by definition as long as the earth's rotation is constant. Earth's rotation varies slightly due to tidal cycles. So any variation is primarily due to tidal cycles.
  • Dave, The equivalent of the 60 Hz forcing signal is more complicated in lunisolar terms. The analogy is that there are two strong signals that are nearly balanced but closely spaced at 59 Hz and 61 Hz. These are the fortnightly tropical signal and …
  • "only roughly so, since the Sun is dynamic" Of course it is. As I said the orbital dynamics causing the daily cycle and the annual cycle are responsible for most of the variability -- this is not due to "the wind". Then, adding in the external…
  • "There are more than that. Inherent Helmholtz resonances of the geographic structure with excitation by Vertical and Horizontal Coriolis and ITCZ and Trade Wind Belts. " An external force is needed to cause the winds to change. Amazing how some…
  • "Who cares?" I do. That's fine, you can go ahead and study processes that evolve over geologic time. I am not working that angle, only the climate changes that happen over the course of days to years. There are only two forcing m…
  • Plate tectonics are heuristically guaranteed to ... Who cares? ... next At this point, if I notice something useful that you're contributing, will let you know. The spatial nodes are tied to the temporal LTE scaling by a linear dispersion c…
  • "ENSO cycles are inherently very disturbed, since they range from 2-7 years; periods no one can reliably predict yet." Umm, all you are describing is the problem statement. We all know that. At some point are you planning on doing something o…
  • I doubt that noise is much of an issue -- we are considering an ocean basin with a significant inertia associated with the thermocline. Nothing has been known to disturb the cycles of ENSO, not even volcanic events. Contrast that to atmospheric cyc…
  • "Lunisolar Earth tides start as a three-body system, so chaos is predicted from the start." You may be inadvertently supporting my lunar-induced Chandler wobble model. The 3-body system is intractable because of the mutual dynamics between the…
  • The most comprehensive cross-validation is that Chandler wobble, ENSO, QBO, and several other climate indices can all be straightforwardly interpreted as tidally forced behaviors. Cross-validation via parsimony says that since one model can explain …
  • " don't see semantically clear predictions in your Model yet, and was thinking more along the lines of Galileo or Mendel, and many others, who published against orthodoxy with definite predictions." The difference there is that they can do cont…
  • The reason that I mentioned the framing is that it seems that you have a plan on how to proceed, as if you have a sure-fire recipe for gaining acceptance. So you recommend that I make a prediction and place it in some sort of "official" location whe…
  • Dave said: "Again, what does your Model predict for the next few ENSO cycles?" Knock yourself out and run the model. Then you can frame it any way you want. for the source code: https://github.com/pukpr/GeoEnergyMath
  • Dave asked: "What is your model's Tidal-based ENSO Prediction for the next few cycles? It should reliably predict when short or long periods will occur." One step better -- here is an extrapolation for two centuries from now There's still m…