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DaveSantos

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  • PaulP: "(ENSO is) a standing-wave mode with a fixed spatial configuration" This claim presumes spacetime is not the more correct notion of space, that standing waves do not oscillate in spacetime, and even presumes Earth is "fixed". Nothing is fixe…
  • PaulP: "Doing predictions is way down on the list of necessary tasks to complete, but I can see how readers raised with a horse-race mentality would consider it important." Agreed. That is why I stated your "calculated predictions for the 2280 wind…
  • PaulK: "Why don't you do it?" Its quite enough that you wish not to run your model in the Ensemble for validation, declaring that path "bad advice". Good advice is not to futz with poorly documented GitHub code. In any case, your calculated predict…
  • You can't wave-away Lunisolar noise in ENSO-QBO data as "vague ramblings", given the supporting references. Lets keep the references coming. An ocean data-buoy on a tensioned tether anchored 9km deep is a very sensitive inverted (floating) pendulum…
  • PaulP: "The elegance of the physics of gravitational forcing." Agreed, as a classically ideal principle. The real world of noisy data sets and ENSO-QBO Model Ensembles is not so "elegant". Regarding the danger of a parsimony fallacy, Menger wrote,…
  • These links speak to the question of ENSO sensor data subject to many sources of noise- https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/data-quality-control https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-signal-and-noise In the context here, we can identi…
  • Paul. I am a life-long sailor dealing with tides, so I have "some intuition how this works", just as you wish. We agree that tidal "patterns aren't fixed on strictly periodic dates", for reasons I have partially listed. No I do not expect "some for…
  • "QBO" is no "sematic sugar", but the accepted name even you rightfully use: Quasi-Biennial. There is far more than imaginary sugar to identifying probable Tidal Noise in ENSO-QBO sensor data. This adds a lot to the analysis, unless you already caref…
  • "Sun passing nodally over the equator" is in fact a seasonal Orbital Resonance that is not the three-body Lunarsolar Tide per se. Remember, I accept Orbital Resonances AND lunisolar noise in the ENSO-QBO sensor data. You do not seem to accept the la…
  • "Strongly suggests" should not be confused with "certainty" by a sloppy reading. Indeed, its not hard to repeat the QQO explanation already on the table. Jupiter's moons are comparatively tiny compared to its mass, and numerous compared to our Moon…
  • ENSO is measured many ways; including current, wind, atmospheric-pressure, sea-surface height, and sea and air temperature. Lunisolar tidal noise is predicted here in all of these data sets, as well as weak long-period harmonic forcings buried in th…
  • ENSO-QBO themselves are not forced in real time by daily tides, but data-buoys and data-sondes are. This is noise with regard to your hypothesis. It can't be waved away. Showing the tidal signal clearly in non-ENSO atmospheric data does not address…
  • PaulP:"It only gives one the impression that they have control over the data. In this case, the interactive control makes it seem as if the movement is downward, as if the wind itself is sinking." It did not seem that way to me nor, no doubt, to th…
  • Nad: "it would be good to at least notify people if you throw something away." Irreversible editorial deletion is rather extreme, although net-bots tend to eventually preserve public content. Moving unloved content to a public scrapyard file, where…
  • PaulP: "One man's noise is another man's signal" MDL (male dominant language) is worse than too many CAPS. "One's noise is another's signal," is better. The science of signal and noise is only begun by quoting this truism. Your choice of noise in …
  • PaulP: "any time scale we would be interested in" All time scales are scientifically interesting. You objected to lack of curiosity recently, only to now profess your own disinterest (?) ENSO was set up by plate tectonics and many other long period…
  • PaulP: "substantiation that ENSO is not chaotic." Even a basic double-pendulum or the square-root of 2 decimal integer sequence is quite chaotic. Any complexity is inherently chaotic. ENSO is clearly multi-chaotic. How is the plate tectonics constr…
  • Do not confuse inherent chaotic unpredictability with converging averages of larger samplings. These are quite different things! Its possible to develop an ever more precise estimation of average ENSO-QBO periodicity, and still not be able to preci…
  • True, our investigation here is about ENSO-QBO behavior. The predicted sensitivity is of a nature that a slight difference now in conditions can completely alter future quasi-periodicity inflection, the longer the time-frame, the more divergent. Ind…
  • PaulP:"Is having a winter season sensitive to initial conditions? Is having a daily warming sensitive to initial conditions?" Yes, the slight declination of the Earth had to be set up, or there would be no seasons, and the Earth had to rotate, rat…
  • PaulP:"Dave, so you say that NOAA has all the answers, eh?" No, NOAA only has some ENSO answers, not all. I continue insisting its a long game, like progress in Weather Modeling and Prediction. I disagree with Billy too. He did not waste that hour…
  • Again, what amount of Lunisolar Noise do you think is in the ENSO data? Do you think its only "forcing" expressed in the data? No contribution to chaos? As Earth rotates, the Moon's pull goes on way, then the other. Does this to-and-fro not conside…
  • Unclear what proposition "No" relates to above. NOAA understands patterns of tides and strengths and limitations of LaPlace's Equations to an expert degree better than blanket denial suggests. Continuing review of Lunisolar effects on data collecti…
  • True. With six month forecasts NOAA is betting on Chaos. With "even better" 260yr-plus predictions, you are betting against Chaos. All you have to do is beat NOAA six months at a time for a few years. Even better, beat them a few years out.
  • PaulP: "So, which is a better ENSO model? Mine or this ML version?" Let measured predictive success decide the question. I agree with you below. PaulP on ML Version: "a great addition to open-source climate science. " Caution: Machine Learning is…
  • Don't give up yet. There is more shared here than you are allowing. You are farther along than me in showing your ENSO model results, after so many years head-start. Anyone needs the sort of time it took you to be ready. Give me time to satisfy you…
  • PaulP: "So where is your predictive model of chaos?" Again, our best example of a "predictive model of chaos" is modern weather prediction, now fairly accurate out to 10 days. Weather is chaotic, but because its also deterministic, we diligently im…
  • PaulP:"All you seem to be doing is marginalizing any analysis that I am posting to the forum." Sorry if it seems so. Your analysis here stands or falls on its own merits; its not for anyone to change that. From the start, I readily agreed with you …
  • PaulP: "It's not about the predictions, but about the physics." More broadly, ENSO prediction geophysics are much the same physics as weather prediction. There is a lot human life and assets riding on the best physics-based predictive models. Techn…
  • PaulP:"It's called a topological insulator because the flow is restricted to a surface, boundary, or interface instead of the bulk." However, the Equatorial Kelvin Wave travels within the bulk of the Equatorial Belt between North and South Boundari…